Qualcomm forecasts $15 billion data center revenue by 2029 as smartphone sales fall

Analysis

Why This Matters

Qualcomm is shifting from its main smartphone chip market into fast-growing AI data center infrastructure, a bet that will shape its revenue mix for years.
The company's first quarter 2027 forecast of about $650 million provides an early check on whether demand from Amazon and Meta materialises.
If the forecasts hold, data centers could become a roughly 30 percent share of Qualcomm's business, changing how it is valued and what it competes in.

Background

Qualcomm has long been a major supplier of processors for mobile phones, but a roughly 20 percent drop in smartphone sales compared with 2025 has pushed it to look elsewhere for growth. It announced data center partnerships with Amazon and Meta earlier this year. The company has set targets that are more conservative than AMD's, which expects more than 80 percent of its revenue to eventually come from data centers.

Key Perspectives

Qualcomm: expects data center revenue of about $650 million in Q1 2027, rising to $5 billion by the end of 2027 and $15 billion by 2029, with data centers eventually around 30 percent of its business. AMD: expects more than 80 percent of its revenue to eventually come from data centers.

What to Watch

Whether Qualcomm delivers the roughly $650 million in data center revenue it has forecast for the first quarter of 2027.
Whether smartphone sales stabilise or keep falling by around 20 percent compared with 2025, which would increase pressure on the new business.
Whether the $5 billion by end of 2027 target looks achievable as AMD pursues the same data center market.

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

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SupportedQualcomm forecasts data center revenue of $15 billion by 2029.The Verge: “But it anticipates that will reach $5 billion by the end of 2027 and $15 billion by 2029.”
SupportedSmartphone sales are down around 20 percent compared with 2025.The Verge: “With smartphone sales tanking by around 20 percent compared to 2025, Qualcomm is looking to data centers to help boost its bottom line.”
SupportedQualcomm expects data centers to eventually account for around 30 percent of its business.The Verge: “It confirmed during the call that it expects data centers to eventually account for around 30 percent of its business.”
SupportedQualcomm’s data center partnerships include Amazon and Meta, and were announced earlier this year.The Verge: “through partnerships with companies like Amazon and Meta announced earlier this year.”
SupportedQualcomm forecasts about $650 million in data center revenue in the first quarter of 2027.The Verge: “forecasting around $650 million in data center revenue during the first quarter of 2027.”
SupportedQualcomm expects data center revenue to reach $5 billion by the end of 2027.The Verge: “But it anticipates that will reach $5 billion by the end of 2027”
SupportedQualcomm laid out its data center plans during its Q4 2026 earnings call.The Verge: “During its Q4 2026 earnings call, the company laid out its plans to make a splash in the AI data center business”
SupportedQualcomm is looking to data centers to help boost its bottom line.The Verge: “Qualcomm is looking to data centers to help boost its bottom line.”
SupportedQualcomm’s total revenue for 2026 was $10.4 billion.The Verge: “Considering the company’s total revenue for 2026 was $10.4 billion”
Partly supportedThe smartphone-sales decline pushed Qualcomm to expand beyond its handset market.The Verge: “With smartphone sales tanking by around 20 percent compared to 2025, Qualcomm is looking to data centers to help boost its bottom line.”
SupportedQualcomm’s data center forecast is less ambitious than AMD’s forecast of more than 80 percent of revenue eventually coming from data centers.The Verge: “That’s not quite as ambitious as AMD, which says that it expects over 80 percent of its revenue will eventually come from data centers.”