The future Royal Air Force will be built around “autonomy, not flesh”, Britain’s most senior air officer said on Monday, outlining plans for four AI-enabled drones to fly alongside every Typhoon fighter as the UK prepares to be ready for conflict with Russia by 2030.
Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, the chief of air staff, set out the strategy in a lecture at the Royal United Services Institute in London. “AI will enable warfare that speeds well beyond human comprehension, meaning that our role will shift towards the outside, and it will shift towards controlling the activity and setting the guardrails,” he said. He argued that the modern paradigm must become “autonomy, not flesh”, echoing the Anglo-American second world war model of “steel, not flesh”.
Under the vision, four armed, AI-enabled uncrewed craft would work alongside each RAF Typhoon, with the first tests to be conducted next year and an aim to have the drones in service by the end of the decade. That timeline aligns with a Nato directive for the UK and other alliance members to be ready to fight Russia if necessary by 2030. Smyth pointed to the £300 million Storm Fighter programme of “loyal wingman” drones announced in July as part of the delayed defence investment plan, saying “crewed platforms are no longer enough”. The drones, he said, would provide “force multiplier function and the affordable mass we so definitely require” and put sensors and weapons well within contested airspace.
One possible mission, he said, would be to track Russian aircraft trying to cross the Greenland-Ireland-UK gap into the north Atlantic, controlled from a Typhoon cockpit flying over Scotland several hundred miles away. Smyth linked the shift to recruitment difficulties. The RAF’s fully trained personnel numbers have fallen from 29,800 in 2020 to 27,850 now, and have only begun to increase over the last 18 months.
Over the weekend, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said the UK had “a little over 1,000 days to complete our mission: to be ready with our allies to fight and win”. Smyth noted that AI was already changing conflict, with the US and Israel using it to shorten target selection in wars in Gaza and Iran, and Russia and Ukraine using it to identify and strike ground targets.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The plan sets a concrete goal of AI drones in service by the end of the decade, tied to Nato’s 2030 readiness target for a possible conflict with Russia.
- It would shift human personnel from flying to supervising, making the “guardrails” around autonomous weapons a central question.
- Drones are framed as a response to recruitment shortfalls and the need for “affordable mass” in any future fight.
Background
Smyth presented the shift as a modern version of the Anglo-American second world war reliance on “steel, not flesh”, avoiding the mass infantry casualties of the first world war. His speech came as the UK’s defence investment plan faces delays and as AI-assisted targeting is already used by the US, Israel, Russia and Ukraine. The RAF has been told it must be ready to fight Russia by 2030, a deadline Streeting put at just over 1,000 days.
What to Watch
- Whether the first tests of the Typhoon companion drones go ahead next year as promised.
- Whether the Storm Fighter programme and the delayed defence investment plan keep the end-of-decade service target.
- How the RAF defines and enforces the human “guardrails” it says will govern AI-enabled warfare.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedSmyth said the RAF’s modern paradigm must become “autonomy, not flesh”.UK news | The Guardian: ““Given today’s changing character of war, I would argue strongly that the modern paradigm must now become autonomy, not flesh,” the chief of air staff said”
- SupportedSmyth said AI would enable warfare to move beyond human comprehension and shift people’s role towards controlling activity and setting guardrails.UK news | The Guardian: ““AI will enable warfare that speeds well beyond human comprehension, meaning that our role will shift towards the outside, and it will shift towards controlling the activity and setting the guardrails,” Smyth said.”
- SupportedSmyth said “crewed platforms are no longer enough”.UK news | The Guardian: ““Crewed platforms are no longer enough,” Smyth said.”
- SupportedSmyth said the drones would provide “force multiplier function and the affordable mass we so definitely require”.UK news | The Guardian: “The drones would “provide force multiplier function and the affordable mass we so definitely require””
- SupportedStreeting said the UK had “a little over 1,000 days” to be ready with its allies to fight and win.UK news | The Guardian: “Over the weekend Wes Streeting, the defence secretary, said the UK had “a little over 1,000 days to complete our mission: to be ready with our allies to fight and win”.”
- Not in the sourcesSmyth is Britain’s most senior air officer.UK news | The Guardian: “The senior military officer was setting out a strategy for the RAF”
- Partly supportedSmyth noted that AI was already changing conflict, including US and Israeli use of it to speed target selection in Gaza and Iran.UK news | The Guardian: “AI has been used by the Israeli and US military to dramatically increase the pace of target selection in the wars in Gaza and Iran”
- SupportedFour armed, AI-enabled uncrewed craft would work alongside every RAF Typhoon.UK news | The Guardian: “Four armed, AI-enabled uncrewed craft would work alongside every RAF Typhoon”
- SupportedThe first tests of the drones are to be conducted next year.UK news | The Guardian: “with the first tests to be conducted next year.”
- SupportedThe aim is for the drones to be in service by the end of the decade.UK news | The Guardian: “The aim is for the drones to be in service by the end of the decade”
- SupportedA NATO directive calls for the UK and other alliance members to be ready to fight Russia, if necessary, by 2030.UK news | The Guardian: “in line with a Nato directive for the UK and other alliance members to be ready to fight Russia if necessary by 2030.”
- SupportedThe Storm Fighter programme is worth £300 million and was announced in July as part of the delayed defence investment plan.UK news | The Guardian: “the £300m Storm Fighter programme of “loyal wingman” drones announced in July as part of the delayed defence investment plan”