Republican Kurt Alme wins Montana Senate race to succeed Steve Daines
The Associated Press called the contest at 2:54 a.m. Wednesday, with Alme on 47.7%, independent Seth Bodnar on 38.6% and Democrat Alani Bankhead on 11.9%, with 78% of the vote counted
Republican Kurt Alme has won Montana's Senate race, The Associated Press called in the early hours of Wednesday, defeating Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar to hold the seat being vacated by the retiring Republican senator Steve Daines.
The seat opened because Daines chose not to run for a third term minutes before the March filing deadline. According to the Examiner, the timing was meant to minimise the risk that Alme would attract a major challenger; it also helped avoid a Republican primary for Alme and the entry of a well-known Democrat.
Montana is generally a Republican stronghold that has trended to the right over the past decade. The Cook Political Report rated the seat as "Solid Republican", and President Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in the state in 2024 by nearly 20 percentage points, the Examiner reported.
Alme's path was eased by the shape of the opposition. Bodnar ran with the backing of traditional union and Democratic-aligned groups, part of what the Examiner describes as a nationwide Democratic effort to compete in traditionally Republican states by fielding or backing independent challengers. Bankhead stayed in the race past the withdrawal deadline, and 22 members of the Montana state legislature urged her to drop out and backed Bodnar instead. The Examiner's account says the two challengers' failure to consolidate behind a single candidate left the seat in Republican hands.
Trump endorsed Alme, while Democratic leaders kept clear of the other two candidates in the state, according to the Examiner. Some surveys released in the final month before the election showed Alme leading the field by 19 points, and Bodnar and Bankhead together took 45% of the vote, split 26% to 19%.
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Vote share in Montana Senate election, with 78% of votes counted
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Source: Washington Examiner
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Analysis
Why This Matters
Montana stays in Republican hands, with Alme succeeding a Republican incumbent rather than taking a seat from the other party, so the result does not change the partisan balance of the Senate.
The contest is a case study in a Democratic tactic of backing independent challengers in Republican-leaning states, and in what happened when two challengers stayed in against one Republican.
Montana voters split their ballots between the two non-Republican candidates rather than consolidating, which the Examiner identifies as decisive.
Background
Montana has been a Republican-leaning state that has moved further right over the past decade, and the Examiner reports that the Cook Political Report rated this Senate seat as "Solid Republican". The state's recent history has not been uniformly Republican: the Examiner notes that less than two years ago Montana was represented in the Senate by the Democrat Jon Tester, who backed Bodnar, and that six years ago the state had a Democratic governor. The seat opened when Daines, the Republican incumbent, decided against seeking a third term.
Key Perspectives
Twenty-two Montana state legislators: urged Democrat Alani Bankhead to withdraw from the race and threw their support behind the independent Seth Bodnar.
President Donald Trump: endorsed Kurt Alme, according to the Examiner.
What to Watch
The count of the remaining ballots: the race was called with 78% of the vote counted, and the final tally will settle the margins.
Whether the pattern seen in Montana, where a Democrat and an independent split the non-Republican vote, recurs in other Republican-leaning states where Democrats field or back independent challengers.
How Alme positions himself as he prepares to take the seat Daines is vacating.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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SupportedRepublican Kurt Alme won the Montana Senate race to succeed Steve Daines.Washington Examiner: “Kurt Alme emerged victorious in Montana’s Senate race Tuesday night, beating Democrat Alani Bankhead and independent Seth Bodnar to succeed outgoing Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT).”
SupportedThe Associated Press called the race for Alme at 2:54 a.m. Wednesday.Washington Examiner: “The race was called for Alme at 2:54 a.m. Wednesday morning by the Associated Press .”
SupportedAt the call, Alme had 47.7%, Bodnar 38.6% and Bankhead 11.9%.Washington Examiner: “He garnered 47.7% against Bodnar’s 38.6% and Bankhead’s 11.9%”
SupportedThe results were reported with 78% of the vote counted.Washington Examiner: “with 78% of the vote counted.”
SupportedDaines chose not to run for a third term minutes before the March filing deadline, and his retirement opened the seat.Washington Examiner: “The seat is opening up because of Daines’s retirement, who chose not to run for a third term minutes before the March filing deadline”
SupportedDaines made the decision to minimise the risk of Alme attracting a major challenger.Washington Examiner: “to minimize the risk that Alme would attract a major challenger.”
SupportedThe move helped avoid a Republican primary for Alme and the entry of a well-known Democrat.Washington Examiner: “The move helped avoid a GOP primary for Alme as well as the entrance of a well-known Democrat across the aisle.”
SupportedThe Cook Political Report rated the seat “Solid Republican”.Washington Examiner: “Cook Political Report rated the seat as “Solid Republican””
SupportedBodnar’s campaign was part of a nationwide Democratic effort to compete in traditionally Republican states by fielding or backing independent challengers.Washington Examiner: “Bodnar’s campaign was part of a nationwide effort by Democrats to compete in traditionally Republican states by fielding or backing independent challengers.”
SupportedBankhead remained in the race past the withdrawal deadline.Washington Examiner: “But when Bankhead was still in the race after the withdrawal deadline”
SupportedTwenty-two members of Montana’s state legislature asked Bankhead to drop out and backed Bodnar.Washington Examiner: “Bankhead was asked by 22 members of the Montana state legislature to drop out. The state lawmakers threw their support behind Bodnar”
SupportedThe challengers’ failure to consolidate behind one candidate left the seat in Republican hands.Washington Examiner: “after both Bodnar and Bankhead refused to drop out in order to consolidate the Democratic vote. ... Montana’s Senate seat was handed to Republicans on a silver platter.”