Runway incursions on the rise at Australian airports, UNSW researcher finds

ATSB investigating six recent incidents at Sydney Airport; expert calls for modern surveillance technology

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By LineZotpaper

Published30 August 2026

Read Time3 min

Sources2 outlets

New analysis of Australian Transport Safety Bureau data has found a significant increase in runway incursions and taxiing incidents at Australian airports over the past 22 years, amid a spate of recent runway conflicts in Sydney that has put air safety under the microscope.

Since late July, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau has opened six investigations into runway incursions and taxiing occurrences at Sydney Airport, with the two most recent cases announced on Wednesday, August 26.

The ATSB detailed two specific incidents. On August 16, air traffic control told a Virgin 737 to give way to a Qantas 737 leaving the runway, but the instruction was not relayed correctly and the mistake went unnoticed by air control. On August 25, incomplete traffic information was passed to a Jetstar Airbus A320, which resulted in a Bombardier Dash 8 taxiing behind the aircraft.

Of the six incidents, the ATSB said only one — in which a Jetstar crew member was injured on August 9 — had been categorised as a "near collision." A second incident has been classed as a "serious incident," while the remaining four met the threshold for "incidents."

The situation prompted Graham Wild, an aviation discipline coordinator at the University of New South Wales, to investigate the broader trend. Dr Wild analysed ATSB data from 2003 to 2025, focusing on runway incursions and taxiing collisions or near collisions. He measured both the count and rate of occurrences per million flight hours to assess whether incidents were rising faster than the amount of flying.

His analysis found that for domestic aviation, taxiing collisions or near-collision occurrences increased on average by about one additional occurrence every three years. For commercial air transport — including regional, charter and freight aircraft — the number of runway incursions increased on average by about three additional occurrences every two years.

Dr Wild said overall there was a trend of safety improving, but the ultimate goal in aviation was to achieve a zero figure. He advocated for modern surveillance technology similar to that used with drones. "[If] we had modern surveillance [like] what we do with drones … in terms of knowing where aircraft are and having a more connected system, technology would solve a lot of those problems," he said.

A spokesperson for Airservices Australia said reporting and examining operational incidents is an important part of the aviation safety system. The spokesperson noted that since January 2021, Airservices reported on average about 34 occurrences per month at Sydney Airport, compared to 21 at Brisbane Airport and 12 at Melbourne Airport. The number of reports made by Airservices to the ATSB regarding occurrences in Sydney during August, they said, is "consistent with average reporting levels."

Analysis

Why This Matters

Passenger safety: While no commercial passenger aircraft have been involved in a collision, the rising trend in runway incursions increases the risk of a serious accident at Australia's busiest airports.
Systemic pressure: The concentration of incidents at Sydney Airport — which handles the highest traffic volume — raises questions about whether air traffic control systems and procedures are keeping pace with growing flight numbers.
Technology gap: The expert's call for modern surveillance highlights a potential gap between current air traffic management systems and the real-time tracking capabilities available in drone operations.

Background

Runway incursions — where an aircraft, vehicle or person enters a protected runway area without authorisation — are among the most serious safety risks in aviation. With air traffic increasing at Australian airports, even small procedural errors can escalate quickly. The recent investigations at Sydney Airport follow a broader global focus on runway safety, with international aviation bodies emphasising improved communication and technology as key to prevention. The ATSB's investigations are ongoing, and no final reports or findings have been released yet.

Key Perspectives

Graham Wild (UNSW aviation researcher): Sees a clear long-term trend of increasing runway incursions and taxiing incidents, particularly in commercial air transport. He argues that modern surveillance systems could dramatically reduce these occurrences.

Airservices Australia: Defends the current system, emphasising that incident reporting is a routine and important safety mechanism. The organisation notes that the August report rate at Sydney Airport is consistent with historical averages, suggesting the current spate may not be anomalous.

ATSB: Remains neutral in its investigative role. The bureau has classified the incidents along a spectrum from "incident" to "near collision," indicating a range of severity but keeping each case under active investigation.

What to Watch

Final ATSB investigation reports on the six Sydney incidents, which will identify contributing factors and any safety recommendations.
Whether the increased incident rate triggers regulatory action, such as mandated technology upgrades or procedural changes at Sydney Airport.
Airservices Australia's response to calls for improved surveillance, including potential pilot programs at Australia's busiest airports.

Sources

Runway incursions on the rise across Australian airports, says expert — Latest business news
Runway incursions on the rise across Australian airports, says expert — Just In