The shift in Washington has been swift. In the 10 days since President Donald Trump spoke by telephone with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the US has issued a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies, throttled Ukraine's access to satellite intelligence, paused sweeping new sanctions on Russia, and refused to release critical interceptor missiles. Trump also blasted Zelensky on Monday, saying it was "time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine."
Russian officials have reacted with open triumph. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine's continued strikes on Russian oil facilities were "final signs of agony" that would not change the war's course. Presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted a single word: "Checkmate." A Russian academic close to senior diplomats, speaking anonymously, said Putin "was able to convince Trump" during their latest phone call, exploiting the US president's concerns over low approval ratings and high diesel prices ahead of the US midterm elections.
Zelensky, in an interview with NBC News on Sunday, warned that a US-Russia alliance would be catastrophic. "If the United States will support Putin: it's unbelievable, it's a tragedy," he said. "If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail. And we will not be able to stand."
European leaders are scrambling to salvage diplomatic momentum. In Oslo this week, Witkoff will meet Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner will join by video link. "The aim is to put diplomatic efforts on a more constructive path," Store said.
Critics say the administration's pivot has been driven by short-term electoral concerns rather than strategy. Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe, said Trump is lashing out because he feels cornered over the midterms, and "Ukraine is expendable on strategic grounds." He argued that Putin, who shares Trump's admiration for a strongman-led world order, has proven skilled at manipulating his more gullible interlocutors.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the exiled Russian opposition leader, said the Kremlin believes it has seized the moment of Trump's weakness. "For Putin, everything that is happening today are signs of the West's weakness," he said.
The Trump administration had backed Ukraine as recently as July, when Trump called Zelensky "amazing" and endorsed deep strikes inside Russia. But as the US conflict in Iran pushed up oil prices and midterm pressures mounted, that support evaporated. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Ukraine's refinery strikes for surging fuel prices, a line Putin was quick to reinforce.
Russian officials have already begun discussing a broader economic rapprochement. Dmitriev told an energy forum that a "range of economic and investment projects" with the US were under consideration, including Arctic and LNG ventures. "More and more Americans, including within the administration, understand that sanctions harm the United States itself," he said.
Whether the Oslo talks can restore a tougher US stance or merely pave the way for a settlement on Moscow's terms remains unclear. For now, the Kremlin believes it has the upper hand.