Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is campaigning through the state ahead of Tuesday's election, with a report describing him as threatening a double-digit blowout over Republican Stacy Garrity, and with Democratic control of the US House and a state government trifecta within reach.
Shapiro, a potential 2028 contender and a short-lister in the 2024 vice-presidential sweepstakes, is running against Garrity, who is backed by President Donald Trump, according to a Politico report. He is also putting his coattails to the test: Democrats could flip four hotly contested congressional seats, which would guarantee them the House, and could take the state Senate, including some heavily gerrymandered seats, which could give Democrats a governing trifecta for the first time since 1992.
"We may have a lead, but you're coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels," Shapiro told Politico. "You've got to run hard." At East Stroudsburg University, he urged voters not to let Trump take away their hopefulness. "The answers are always straight ahead."
Shapiro cast the race in national terms. "I'm not thinking about this as a victory for me," he said. "I'm thinking about this as a victory for our country." A trifecta, he said, would let him "raise wages almost immediately for tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians who are at or below minimum wage" by passing a $15 minimum wage and other measures.
His strategy invites comparison to Ron DeSantis's approach of demonstrating dominance at home before branching out nationally, a model that did not pay off for the Florida governor. Political strategist David Axelrod said DeSantis was hurt by waiting until May, after his legislative session, to announce. "Time is at a premium. If that's his plan, that would be a miscalculation." Shapiro gave no sign of a timeline, saying, "I don't know what my plans are."
On the trail, the day had the feel of one campaign ending and another beginning. He stumped for Scranton mayor Paige Cognetti and state Senate candidate Brian Wrightson, and closed a stop at a tavern in Old Forge by picking up five pizzas for the road. Asked at Pocono Raceway whether he was ready to announce a campaign launch, he deflected: "If this is a metaphor, it's for finishing the race strong."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Tuesday's result determines whether Democrats flip four Pennsylvania congressional seats, which would guarantee them control of the US House and a check on President Trump.
- A Democratic trifecta in Pennsylvania, the first since Bill Clinton's 1992 election, would allow the state to raise the minimum wage to $15 and pass other measures.
- The size of Shapiro's win will be read as a signal about his viability as a 2028 presidential candidate.
Background
Shapiro was a short-lister in the 2024 vice-presidential sweepstakes and is considered a potential 2028 contender. The Politico report compares his strategy to Ron DeSantis's approach of building dominance at home before expanding nationally, which did not work for the Florida governor. Pennsylvania Democrats could win control of the state Senate, including some heavily gerrymandered seats.
Key Perspectives
Josh Shapiro: says he is not thinking about the race as a victory for himself but as "a victory for our country," and that a Pennsylvania trifecta would let him raise wages for tens of thousands of workers at or below the minimum wage.
David Axelrod: says DeSantis's decision to delay his national announcement until after his legislative session hurt him, and that if Shapiro follows that plan, "that would be a miscalculation."
What to Watch
- Tuesday's results in the four contested congressional districts and the state Senate races.
- Whether Shapiro signals any 2028 plans before the end of the year; he said he does not know his plans.
- Whether his margin over Garrity reaches the double-digit blowout described in the report.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedShapiro aims for a strong finish.Politics: “Josh Shapiro aims for a strong finish in a campaign with 2028 implications.”
- SupportedPennsylvania Democrats are in contention to win the US House majority.Politics: “Shapiro is on the brink of flipping four hotly contested congressional seats — and guaranteeing Democrats the House.”
- SupportedPennsylvania Democrats could win a state-government trifecta.Politics: “Pennsylvania Democrats could also take control of the state Senate, including some heavily gerrymandered seats, giving the party a governing trifecta for the first time since 1992.”
- SupportedShapiro is threatening a double-digit win over Stacy Garrity, who is backed by Trump.Politics: “He’s threatening a double-digit blowout over Stacy Garrity, a candidate backed by President Donald Trump”
- SupportedThe race is being watched for signs relevant to 2028.Politics: “Josh Shapiro aims for a strong finish in a campaign with 2028 implications.”
- SupportedShapiro told Politico, “We may have a lead, but you're coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels,” and, “You've got to run hard.”Politics: ““We may have a lead, but you're coming down this home stretch. People are nipping at your heels,” the Pennsylvania governor told POLITICO. “You’ve got to run hard.””
- SupportedAt East Stroudsburg University, Shapiro told people, “The answers are always straight ahead.”Politics: ““Don't let him feel like change can't come or that we have to look in the rearview mirror for answers. The answers are always straight ahead.””
- SupportedShapiro said, “I'm not thinking about this as a victory for me,” but as “a victory for our country.”Politics: ““I’m not thinking about this as a victory for me,” he told POLITICO during a swing through the state. “I'm thinking about this as a victory for our country.””
- SupportedShapiro said a trifecta could let him raise wages almost immediately for tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians at or below minimum wage.Politics: ““Likewise, here in Pennsylvania, if we can win a trifecta for the first time since Bill Clinton's election, I can raise wages almost immediately for tens of thousands of Pennsylvanians who are at or below minimum wage and raise wages for others.””
- SupportedDavid Axelrod said, “Time is at a premium. If that's his plan, that would be a miscalculation.”Politics: ““Time is at a premium. If that’s his plan, that would be a miscalculation.””
- SupportedShapiro said, “I don't know what my plans are.”Politics: ““I don’t know what my plans are,” Shapiro said.”
- SupportedAsked if he was ready to announce a campaign launch, Shapiro said, “If this is a metaphor, it's for finishing the race strong.”Politics: “Despite the apt setting, he deflects when asked if he’s ready to announce the launch of his campaign. “If this is a metaphor,” he says, “it's for finishing the race strong.””