A US Senate race in solidly Republican South Carolina is now a dead heat, with a new New York Times/Siena poll showing Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican incumbent Darline Graham tied at 48% each. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998 and Donald Trump won it by nearly 18 points in 2024, yet the survey suggests a competitive contest in the final stretch before the election.
Graham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July. She entered the race at Trump's urging without ever having held elected office, and her inexperience has become a central campaign issue. In an August debate, she admitted she was "not that informed on national security" when asked about US policy on Taiwan. The new poll found 51% of voters said she lacked the right experience to be an effective senator.
Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, has built her campaign around her medical career, advocating for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs. She has distanced herself from the Democratic Party's left flank, saying she does not support the proposed Medicare for All model of universal healthcare, and has conceded that Democrats failed on the border. She has declined to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with. That pitch appears to be working with independent voters, who back her over Graham by 57% to 37%.
Graham is leaning heavily on Trump's support. She opposes abortion rights, has said she completely trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran, and has argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported "immediately". Trump visited the state last week to rally for Graham in a 90-minute speech, calling Andrews extreme and drawing repeated interruptions from protesters. He returns again on Thursday.
Republican spending in the state is heavy despite its electoral dominance, and the party is not entirely united: Congressman Ralph Norman, who lost the runoff against Graham, has said he will not campaign for her. Other recent polls show an equally tight contest, though most have Graham narrowly ahead. A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within the margin of error. That same poll showed how much Andrews has been outrunning her own party: the Democratic candidate for governor, Jermaine Johnson, trailed Republican Alan Wilson by 10 points.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- A Democratic win in deeply red South Carolina would be a major upset and could affect the balance of power in the Senate.
- The race tests the strength of Trump's endorsement and the electoral impact of candidate inexperience.
- Independent voters breaking heavily for Andrews suggests a potential shift in voter preferences in a conservative state.
Background
South Carolina has been reliably Republican in presidential and Senate elections, last electing a Democrat to the Senate in 1998. The seat became open after the death of Senator Lindsey Graham in July 2026, leading to his sister Darline Graham's appointment. The contest has drawn national attention due to the unexpectedly tight polling.
Key Perspectives
Annie Andrews (Democratic candidate): A pediatrician, she advocates for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs, while distancing herself from the party's left flank, opposing Medicare for All and conceding Democrats failed on the border. She has declined to name a national Democrat she would campaign with.
Darline Graham (Republican incumbent): Appointed after her brother's death, she has never held elected office. She opposes abortion rights, trusts Trump fully on tariffs and the war with Iran, and supports immediate deportation for undocumented immigrants. 51% of voters said she lacks the right experience.
Donald Trump (US President): He has campaigned for Graham, calling Andrews extreme and drawing protests at a recent rally. He plans another visit on Thursday.
Rep. Ralph Norman (Republican congressman): Lost the runoff to Graham and has said he will not campaign for her, indicating a lack of full party unity.
What to Watch
- Trump's return rally on Thursday and its effect on the polls.
- The final week of campaigning and any further debates or gaffes.
- Whether independent voters maintain their strong support for Andrews.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedA New York Times/Siena poll shows Annie Andrews and Darline Graham tied at 48% in the South Carolina Senate race in the final stretch.World news | The Guardian: “a New York Times/Siena poll this week has the two candidates neck and neck, at 48% each.”
- SupportedSouth Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.World news | The Guardian: “South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998”
- SupportedDonald Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024.World news | The Guardian: “Donald Trump won it by nearly 18 points in 2024”
- SupportedDarline Graham is the Republican incumbent senator.World news | The Guardian: “Darline Graham, the Republican incumbent senator”
- SupportedGraham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July.World news | The Guardian: “Graham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July”
- SupportedGraham entered the race at Trump's urging.World news | The Guardian: “she entered the race at Trump’s urging”
- SupportedGraham had never held elected office before entering the race.World news | The Guardian: “without having ever held elected office”
- SupportedAt an August debate, Graham said she was “not that informed on national security” when asked about US policy on Taiwan.World news | The Guardian: “an August debate when she admitted she was “not that informed on national security” when asked about US policy on Taiwan.”
- SupportedThe poll found that 51% of voters said Graham lacked the right experience to be an effective senator.World news | The Guardian: “In the poll, 51% of voters said she lacked the right experience to be an effective senator.”
- SupportedIndependent voters back Andrews over Graham by 57% to 37%.World news | The Guardian: “independents, who back her over Graham by 57% to 37%.”
- SupportedGraham argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported “immediately”.World news | The Guardian: “she has argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported “immediately”.”
- SupportedA South Carolina Policy Council survey this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within its margin of error.World news | The Guardian: “A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within its margin of error.”