Sudan accuses Ethiopia of aiding RSF drone attacks amid deep divisions

The Sudanese government alleges that between February and October, 70 separate assaults involving 187 one-way attack drones were launched from Ethiopian territory, according to a detailed report prepared by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs alongside military intelligence. The frequency of attacks appears to be increasing, with 28 attacks carried out by 97 drones in October alone.

The allegations have triggered internal divisions within the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) about how to respond, said border affairs specialist Abdul Kareem Al-Almin Ahmed. "The mutual accusations are many and almost daily, and the tension on the part of the Sudanese army has reached high levels, to the degree that made some voices inside the Sudanese army and the forces allied with it demand that Sudan declare war on Ethiopia based on these interventions," Al-Almin told Al Jazeera.

More than 90 percent of power stations in Sudanese cities have been knocked out of service by drone attacks. Al-Almin described the weapons as "mysterious drones, drones that reach long distances, and almost all Sudanese lands are currently violated by these drones, which confirms that they are drones with a special characteristic and flight properties for a long range and have high destructive power."

A report compiled by the Transitional Sovereignty Council, linked to de facto Sudanese leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, said drone attacks between February 15 and October 27 killed 176 Sudanese soldiers and 484 civilians. It identified Asosa Airport in western Ethiopia, the Kurmuk-Gizen border area, and the Bahir Dar airbase in Amhara as specific launch sites.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Saturday he was appalled by the use of drones in the war and condemned the catastrophic toll on civilians. A drone attack on displaced families in Wad el-Mahi near the Ethiopian border on October 3 killed 26 women and four children. Another attack in Nyala, in Darfur, on October 26 killed at least 21 people and injured at least 40.

Ethiopia denies the claims and has accused the Sudanese government of backing rebels linked to the Tigray People's Liberation Front. The tensions extend beyond the drone allegations to a dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River. Egypt and Sudan, which rely heavily on the Nile, say the dam threatens their national security and breaches international law.

Badr Hassan Al-Shafei, a professor of African studies and conflict resolution expert, said fears of escalation that could harm both countries are preventing an all-out confrontation. In a study published by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, Al-Shafei wrote that “Khartoum's interest lies in the stability of its eastern neighbourhood to avoid security threats and waves of asylum.” He added that Khartoum fears providing military support to Tigray could cause an explosion on its borders, which may increase displacement.

A direct military confrontation with Ethiopia would severely strain Sudan's exhausted military, already fighting the RSF in the southeast. "If the Sudanese army opens a war front with Ethiopia, this is not in its favour and confuses the region," Al-Amin wrote, warning Sudan could find itself "fighting on two fronts."