Sullivan leads Peltola by 2,470 votes in Alaska Senate race with counting under way
No candidate had reached 50% in reported results; Alaska’s ranked-choice system applies if none does, in a race that will help determine control of the US Senate
Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan held a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Mary Peltola in Alaska's US Senate race, with 279 of 401 precincts reporting results on Tuesday night. Sullivan had 48.6% of first-choice votes to Peltola's 47.4%, a gap of 2,470 votes out of 201,705 cast, according to the Alaska Beacon, which reported the race as a tossup as more votes were counted.
Two minor candidates shared the remaining first-choice votes: independent Dan J. Sullivan had 1.7% and Republican Gerald Heikes had 2.1%. Because no candidate reached 50%, the result will be settled by Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation rather than the first-preference count.
Under the state's system, all candidates for an office run in a single primary election. The four who receive the most votes, or everyone if there are four or fewer candidates, advance to the November general election. Voters there rank the candidates in order of preference. A candidate with at least 50% of first-preference votes wins outright. If none reaches that threshold, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated and those voters' ballots move to their second choice, with eliminations continuing until two candidates remain and the one with the most votes wins.
Sullivan's narrow lead followed a series of Democratic victories in US Senate races across the country on Tuesday night. If Peltola prevails, she is expected to be the 55th or 56th Democratic senator in a large Democratic majority. If Sullivan wins, he would join a shrunken Senate Republican caucus that will now be in the minority.
Some Republican officials said before the first results that they would challenge the legality of a Peltola victory, citing New York Times reporting that found Democratic campaigners recruited independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan in an attempt to siphon votes from the incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. Late on Tuesday, President Donald Trump, who ordered civil challenges against Peltola, told the Times he would not challenge the results of the election.
The Alaska Beacon reported that the article is developing and will be updated.
The front page in your inbox each weekday morning: the lead, the picks, and why each one earned its place.
First-choice votes in Alaska Senate race (279 of 401 precincts)
%
Source: Alaska Beacon
§
Analysis
Why This Matters
The result helps determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the US Senate, with Peltola expected to become the 55th or 56th Democratic senator in a large Democratic majority and Sullivan a member of a shrunken Republican minority.
The race is close enough that the ranked-choice tabulation, not the first-preference count, will decide it, so the lead could still change as remaining precincts report and lower-ranked preferences are counted.
Republican officials had said before results came in that they would challenge the legality of a Peltola victory, a dispute that President Donald Trump has since said he would not pursue.
Background
Alaska elects its federal officials under a ranked-choice system, adopted by voters and first used in the 2022 cycle. All candidates appear on a single primary ballot, four advance, and the general election is decided by preference rankings until one candidate holds a majority. The system has produced competitive three-way contests in the state, including in the US House race that Mary Peltola won in 2022. Control of the US Senate has hinged on a small number of competitive seats in recent cycles, giving out-of-state attention to races like this one.
Key Perspectives
Some Republican officials: said before the first results that they would challenge the legality of a Peltola victory, citing New York Times reporting that Democratic campaigners recruited independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan to siphon votes from the incumbent.
President Donald Trump: who ordered civil challenges against Peltola, told the New York Times late on Tuesday that he would not challenge the results of the election.
What to Watch
The remaining precincts and the ranked-choice tabulation: with Sullivan at 48.6% and Peltola at 47.4%, the transfer of Dan J. Sullivan's and Gerald Heikes's first-choice votes will decide the seat.
Whether any legal challenge materialises despite Trump's statement that he would not contest the result.
The final balance of the Senate, which depends on this race and the other Democratic gains reported on Tuesday night.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
Show each claim
SupportedSullivan led Peltola by 2,470 votes while counting was still under way.Alaska Beacon: “The candidates were separated by just 2,470 votes out of 201,705 cast.”
SupportedNo candidate had reached 50% in the reported results.Alaska Beacon: “Sen. Dan Sullivan had 48.6% of voters’ first-choice votes. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola had 47.4% of the vote.”
SupportedAlaska’s ranked-choice system applies if no candidate reaches 50%.Alaska Beacon: “If a candidate gets at least 50% of the first-preference votes, they win. If none have 50%, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated.”
SupportedThe race will help determine control of the US Senate.Alaska Beacon: “Alaska is on course to keep its Republican incumbent Senator in a closely watched race that will help determine whether Republicans or Democrats control the U.S. Senate.”
SupportedThere were results from 279 of 401 precincts on Tuesday night.Alaska Beacon: “With 279 of 401 precincts reporting results Tuesday night, Sen. Dan Sullivan had 48.6% of voters’ first-choice votes.”
SupportedSullivan had 48.6% of first-choice votes and Peltola had 47.4%.Alaska Beacon: “Sen. Dan Sullivan had 48.6% of voters’ first-choice votes. Democratic challenger Mary Peltola had 47.4% of the vote.”
SupportedThe 2,470-vote gap was out of 201,705 votes cast.Alaska Beacon: “The candidates were separated by just 2,470 votes out of 201,705 cast.”
SupportedThe Alaska Beacon described the race as a tossup as more votes were counted.Alaska Beacon: “Alaska US Senate race is a tossup as more votes are counted, keeping Peltola and Sullivan close.”
Partly supportedThe result will be settled by ranked-choice tabulation rather than the first-preference count.Alaska Beacon: “If a candidate gets at least 50% of the first-preference votes, they win. If none have 50%, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes is eliminated.”
SupportedSome Republican officials said before the first results that they would challenge the legality of a Peltola victory, citing New York Times reporting about the recruitment of Dan J. Sullivan.Alaska Beacon: “Some Republican officials said before the first results that they would challenge the legality of a Peltola victory, citing New York Times reporting that found Democratic campaigners recruited independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan”
SupportedTrump ordered civil challenges against Peltola.Alaska Beacon: “President Donald Trump — who ordered civil challenges against Peltola — told the Times he would not challenge the results of the election.”
SupportedLate Tuesday, Trump told the Times he would not challenge the election results.Alaska Beacon: “But late Tuesday, President Donald Trump — who ordered civil challenges against Peltola — told the Times he would not challenge the results of the election.”