U.S. stock futures pointed lower this morning before the New York open after Samsung and Alphabet both reported third-quarter earnings that missed forecasts, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates but indicated that rate increases were likely in the future.
Samsung shares fell 4% in South Korea and Alphabet lost 10% in overnight trading after the earnings reports. Samsung's chipmaking division posted lower-than-expected operating profit, Fortune reported. At Alphabet, cloud revenue beat expectations, but search ad revenue fell short, fueling investor concerns that artificial-intelligence overlays are cannibalising the company's core business.
"The problem is everything else," David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors told Fortune.
The Federal Reserve held interest rates at its latest meeting but suggested rate hikes were likely ahead. SoFi’s Liz Thomas said there should have been a rate hike, noting that oil prices are likely to stay high as long as the war in Iran continues, and that inflation is likely to stay high too. “So it’s very possible we start hearing chatter about a 50 basis point hike in December if the Fed needs to play catch-up,” she wrote in an email to Fortune. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also said he will reduce the number of rate-setting meetings next year, a move that UBS’s Paul Donovan described as “an interesting choice” given economic and political turmoil.
Nasdaq futures were off by more than 1% before the open. S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%, a day after the index had risen 0.28%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 added 0.31%. Asia was mixed. South Korea’s KOSPI lost 1.24% and China’s CSI 300 dropped 1.03%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 1.1% and India’s Nifty 50 gained 1.08%. Brent crude fell to $114 per barrel and Bitcoin was at $80,029.
Microsoft bucked the trend, beating revenue expectations and lowering its capital expenditure guidance, with its stock rising 3.39% overnight.
For months, a common view has been that the AI boom is carrying the U.S. economy and that it is too flush with cash and too big to care much about interest rates.
Kevin Warsh pushed back against both framings on Wednesday. "Interest rates get in the cracks," he said, and growth is "broadening" beyond tech.
Those two positions could point in opposite directions for how high rates need to go. Stronger aggregate demand could argue for more, but an AI boom that's more rate sensitive means each increase does more work.
"He's basically saying they need to do more, but it may not be all that much more."
Investor sentiment toward major tech companies is being tested as questions emerge about AI monetisation in search advertising.
Fed rate hike signals could raise borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, potentially slowing economic growth.
Samsung's chip earnings miss adds uncertainty in the semiconductor market, a key growth sector.
Background
The Federal Reserve held interest rates at its latest meeting but signalled that rate hikes are likely in the near future due to persistent inflation. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also announced plans to hold fewer rate-setting meetings next year.
Samsung and Alphabet both reported third-quarter earnings that missed market expectations, driving tech futures lower.
Key Perspectives
Liz Thomas (SoFi): said a rate hike should have been enacted already; a 50 basis point hike in December is possible if the Fed needs to catch up on inflation.
Paul Donovan (UBS): called Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to hold fewer rate-setting meetings "an interesting choice" during a period of economic and political turmoil.
David Wagner (Aptus Capital Advisors): said Google Cloud performed as intended, but the problem for Alphabet was everything else.
What to Watch
Whether the Fed implements a 50 basis point rate hike in December.
Upcoming earnings reports from other major tech companies and their market reaction.
The trajectory of AI-related demand and its effect on consumer electronics prices and inflation.
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
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SupportedU.S. tech futures fell after Samsung and Alphabet both missed earnings expectations.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Nasdaq futures were off by more than 1% this morning after Samsung and Alphabet reported Q3 earnings and both missed expectations.”
SupportedThe Fed held rates and signaled that rate hikes were likely in the future.Fortune | FORTUNE: “The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates yesterday but signaled that interest rate hikes were likely in the future.”
SupportedGoogle Cloud revenue beat expectations, while search ad revenue fell below forecasts.Fortune | FORTUNE: “At Alphabet, cloud revenue beat expectations, but search ad revenue came in below forecasts”
SupportedLiz Thomas said it was possible there would be discussion of a 50-basis-point rate hike in December.Fortune | FORTUNE: “… So it’s very possible we start hearing chatter about a 50 basis point hike in December if the Fed needs to play catch-up.”
SupportedU.S. futures were lower before the New York open after the two companies reported third-quarter earnings misses.Fortune | FORTUNE: “U.S. futures are pointing lower before the open in New York. ... Nasdaq futures were off by more than 1% this morning after Samsung and Alphabet reported Q3 earnings and both missed expectations.”
SupportedSamsung shares fell 4% in South Korea.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Samsung shares declined 4% in South Korea”
SupportedAlphabet lost 10% in overnight trading.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Alphabet lost 10% in overnight trading.”
SupportedDavid Wagner said, “The problem is everything else.”Fortune | FORTUNE: “David Wagner of Aptus Capital Advisors told Fortune that Google Cloud did what it was supposed to this quarter: “The problem is everything else.””
SupportedThomas said there should have been a rate hike and that oil prices and inflation were likely to stay high while the war in Iran continued.Fortune | FORTUNE: ““My blunt take is that there should have been a rate hike,” SoFi’s Liz Thomas told Fortune in an email. “Oil prices are likely to stay high as long as the war in Iran continues. That means inflation is likely to stay high too.””
SupportedFed Chair Kevin Warsh said he would hold fewer rate-setting meetings next year.Fortune | FORTUNE: “Fed chair Kevin Warsh also said he will hold fewer rate-setting meetings next year.”
SupportedPaul Donovan called the move “an interesting choice.”Fortune | FORTUNE: “UBS’s Paul Donovan—a Warsh critic—raised an eyebrow at that this morning: “Less policy flexibility at a time of economic and political turmoil is an interesting choice,” he told clients.”