The contest for a US Senate seat in Texas has become the most expensive in history, with total spending exceeding half a billion dollars, as polls show Democratic candidate James Talarico holding a slim but stable lead over Republican Ken Paxton ahead of the midterms.
A Democratic victory would end a losing streak in Texas statewide elections stretching back more than three decades. The party has not won a Senate seat in the state since 1988.
Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and state legislator, has campaigned on an anti-corruption agenda and promises to challenge what he calls a conservative establishment insensitive to economic hardship. "Texans are ready for change," he said at a rally in Lubbock. "We are done with the extremism and the corruption."
Paxton, a 63-year-old Republican who defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a contentious primary, carries baggage including a 2015 federal indictment on securities fraud charges that was later dropped and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House on corruption, bribery and abuse of power charges. The Texas Senate later acquitted Paxton. Trump endorsed Paxton late in the primary.
President Donald Trump visited Texas alongside Paxton. “If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas,” Trump told a crowd in Lubbock.
Texas Republicans have voiced concern. Senator Ted Cruz said on his podcast that “the Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans.” Don Huffines, a candidate for state CFO, posted: “When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.”
Elon Musk has funnelled more than $170m into the race, while Talarico has raised more than $140m in donations, setting a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate.
Texas-specific issues have contributed to a hostile environment for Republicans. Hispanic voters, who make up nearly a third of the state's population, have been casting early ballots in historically large numbers and have soured on the administration's immigration enforcement policies. Data centre construction has drawn widespread criticism, particularly in rural areas.
Talarico's polling lead, while stable, remains near the margin of error in most surveys, and last-minute Republican appeals could shift turnout.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Control of the US Senate could hinge on Texas, making this a pivotal race in the midterm elections
- A Democratic win would break a 38-year losing streak in Texas statewide contests, potentially reshaping the political landscape in the second-most populous state
- The massive spending and intense national focus make this a bellwether for future campaign finance dynamics
Background
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and the last Democratic Senate win was in 1988. The state has grown increasingly diverse, with Hispanic voters now a significant share of the electorate. Former Congressman Beto O'Rourke came within 2% of unseating Senator Ted Cruz in 2018, raising Democratic hopes that proved premature.
Key Perspectives
Democrats: James Talarico argues the state is ready for change, campaigning against corruption and economic hardship. Supporters see a genuine breakthrough this year.
Republicans: Ken Paxton and President Trump warn that a loss in Texas would be catastrophic for the party. Strategists acknowledge the threat is real, with Republican operative Brendan Steinhauser saying "the days of waving this off and saying that Texas would never turn blue are over."
Independent analysts: The race has become a "perfect storm" for Democrats and a nightmare for Republicans, driven by national issues including inflation, immigration enforcement backlash, and Paxton's controversies.
What to Watch
- Whether early voting advantages for Democrats, particularly among Hispanics, hold on election day
- The final margin: if Talarico wins by more than 2%, it would signal a shift beyond the narrow Beto O'Rourke loss in 2018
- How Republican turnout in conservative areas responds to Trump's last-minute campaign visits
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedAt a Lubbock rally, James Talarico said, “Texans are ready for change” and “We are done with the extremism and the corruption.”BBC News: “"Texans are ready for change," he said. "We are done with the extremism and the corruption.”
- SupportedDonald Trump told a Lubbock crowd, “If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas.”BBC News: “"If you go out and vote, we're going to have a tremendous win in Texas," the president told the crowd.”
- SupportedTed Cruz said on his podcast that “the Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans.”BBC News: “"Understand, we could lose Texas," Texas Senator Ted Cruz said in his podcast on Friday. "The Democrats are massively out-turning-out the Republicans."”
- SupportedDon Huffines posted, “When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.”BBC News: “"Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America," he posted on X. "When the foundation breaks, it all falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA."”
- SupportedThe Texas Senate race is the most expensive in history, with spending exceeding half a billion dollars.BBC News: “these Senate race has rocketed to become the most expensive in US history, with total spending reaching more than half a billion dollars.”
- SupportedPolls show Talarico holding a slim but stable lead over Paxton.BBC News: “recent polls suggest Talarico has a slim but stable lead”
- SupportedDemocrats’ losing streak in Texas statewide elections stretches back more than three decades.BBC News: “For the Democrats, their losing streak in statewide elections now stretches back more than three decades.”
- SupportedDemocrats have not won a Texas Senate seat since 1988.BBC News: “turning a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time since 1988.”
- SupportedPaxton faced a 2015 federal indictment on securities-fraud charges that was later dropped, was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption, bribery and abuse-of-power charges, and was acquitted by the Texas Senate.BBC News: “a 2015 federal indictment on charges of securities fraud – later dropped – and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House of Representatives on corruption, bribery and abuse of power charges. The Texas Senate would later acquit Paxton”
- SupportedElon Musk has funnelled more than $170 million into the race.BBC News: “Musk alone has funnelled more than $170m into the race .”
- SupportedTalarico has raised more than $140 million in donations and set a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate.BBC News: “the Texas Democrat has proven to be a historically successful fundraiser, amassing more than $140m in donations over the course of his campaign and setting a three-month fundraising record for a Senate candidate.”
- SupportedHispanic voters have soured on the administration’s immigration-enforcement policies and have been casting early ballots in historically large numbers.BBC News: “Hispanic voters – many of whom switched to Trump to help him win the White House in 2024 – have soured on the administration's immigration enforcement policies. Hispanics make up nearly a third of the state's population - and in more than a week of early voting in Texas, they have been casting ballots in historically large numbers.”