President Trump has endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu in Tuesday's Israeli election, but some of his advisers see opportunity for his Middle East agenda in a government led by someone else, U.S. officials tell Axios.
Trump has never worked with an Israeli prime minister other than Netanyahu and does not personally know any of the other candidates. The two have forged a close but often turbulent relationship. "He's the devil he knows," one Trump adviser said, describing the president's view of Netanyahu.
After weeks of hesitation, Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Sunday and even suggested his defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israel relations. One U.S. official described the endorsement as a win-win for Trump, regardless of the outcome. If Netanyahu wins or remains as caretaker prime minister, Trump could claim credit and use leverage for concessions. If Netanyahu loses and opponents form a government, its leaders would still have incentive to cultivate good relations with Trump.
Behind the scenes, many of Trump's closest advisers opposed the endorsement decision, believing the president should stay out of the Israeli election, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Vice President Vance notably declined to follow Trump's lead when asked about the election this week, amid growing hostility toward Netanyahu in parts of the MAGA movement. "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters," Vance told reporters.
Vance, who endorsed former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán days before his April election defeat, said he would no longer get involved in foreign elections. The vice president is among senior Trump officials who became disillusioned with Netanyahu during the war with Iran, according to sources familiar with their thinking. Vance and other top aides believe Netanyahu's pre-war assessments to the White House were mistaken.
Once the Israeli election and U.S. midterms are over, Trump will face a defining choice: whether to join Netanyahu in another major military operation against Iran. Netanyahu is eager to move forward, but the election results could influence Trump's decision. Trump also wants to pursue an ambitious diplomatic agenda including his Gaza peace plan, deals with Lebanon and Syria, and an Israeli-Saudi peace agreement.
Three major Israeli television networks released their final pre-election polls Friday, all showing Netanyahu's coalition falling well short of a parliamentary majority, just 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, 17 fewer than his current coalition holds. His Likud party was projected to win 20 seats, down from 32. The polls gave former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc between 52 and 56 seats, with another 14 to 16 for two Arab Israeli parties. Pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 was the major outlier, projecting 60 seats for his bloc.
The polls point to potential deadlock. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot appears to have a clear path to 61 seats. A unity government is considered highly unlikely. If neither side can assemble a majority, Israel could face another election, with Netanyahu remaining as caretaker prime minister.