Opinion writer Matthew Lynn argues that Donald Trump is likely to become a lame-duck president after the November 3 midterm elections, and that paralysis in Washington would be what markets need after the havoc of the past two years.
In an opinion piece published by the Brisbane Times, WA Today and The Age, Lynn writes that while a powerless US president would normally be a problem, 'the blunt reality is that a paralysed White House will be a big improvement' given what he calls the havoc of the past two years.
He notes that prediction markets show a more than 80 per cent chance Republicans will lose the House and a 69 per cent chance they will lose the Senate. Trump's approval ratings have hit a record low of 32 per cent, Lynn writes, and he may face impeachment once his political opponents control Congress.
Lynn acknowledges some bright spots in Trump's second term, including US leadership in artificial intelligence, record highs on Wall Street, and tariffs that have not crashed global trade. But he describes the overall record as 'a chaotic ride', citing tariffs imposed and reversed with little notice, alliances with Europe torn up, and threats against Greenland.
A paralysed White House, Lynn argues, could see tariffs gradually fade as the legal basis for them is overturned by the courts and the president lacks authority to reimpose them. The threat of trade wars would be lifted, companies could return to long-term planning, and there might even be peace with Canada. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, he says, can keep the machine running.
Lynn concludes that while political paralysis is not ideal, it is 'a lot better than total chaos' and could give the global economy space to heal until a new president emerges.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The November 3 midterms will determine whether Trump faces a hostile Congress for the final two years of his term, affecting US trade, foreign policy and economic stability.
- Lynn's argument that a lame-duck Trump is beneficial reflects a growing view among some observers ahead of a consequential election.
- A shift in congressional control could alter the trajectory of Trump's trade policies and regulatory approach, with global markets closely watching.
Background
Lame-duck status refers to the final period of a president's term after an election in which they have lost control of Congress or are not seeking re-election. Trump, in his second term, is not eligible to run again in 2028, but the midterms will determine the balance of power in Congress. As the election nears, prediction markets suggest Democrats are likely to gain seats.
What to Watch
- The outcome of the November 3 midterm elections and whether Republicans retain control of the House and Senate.
- Trump's approval rating trajectory and the possibility of impeachment proceedings if Democrats win.
- The continued legal challenges to Trump's tariff policies, which Lynn expects may be overturned by courts.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 12 supported.
Show each claim
- SupportedA Trump lame duck would be a relief for the world.WA Today - Latest News: “Trump the lame duck would be a relief for the world.”
- SupportedLynn argues that paralysis in Washington after the November midterms would be what markets need.WA Today - Latest News: “But given the scale of the havoc he has wreaked over the last two years, a period of paralysis in Washington will be exactly what the markets need.”
- SupportedLynn writes, “the blunt reality is that a paralysed White House will be a big improvement”.WA Today - Latest News: “The blunt reality is that a paralysed White House will be a big improvement.”
- SupportedLynn describes Trump’s record as “a chaotic ride”.WA Today - Latest News: “Even so, it has been a chaotic ride.”
- SupportedLynn says political paralysis is “a lot better than total chaos”.WA Today - Latest News: “Sure, political paralysis is not great. But it is a lot better than total chaos.”
- SupportedLynn predicts Trump is likely to become a lame-duck president after the midterms.WA Today - Latest News: “Donald Trump is likely about to become the lamest of lame duck presidents.”
- SupportedPrediction markets show more than an 80 per cent chance Republicans will lose control of the House.WA Today - Latest News: “there is already a more than 80 per cent chance that they will lose control of the House”
- SupportedPrediction markets show a 69 per cent chance Republicans will lose control of the Senate.WA Today - Latest News: “and a 69 per cent chance that they will lose control of the Senate as well.”
- SupportedTrump’s approval rating hit a record low of 32 per cent this month.WA Today - Latest News: “His approval ratings are in free-fall, hitting a record low of just 32 per cent this month.”
- SupportedLynn says Trump may be impeached once his political opponents control Congress.WA Today - Latest News: “He may well be impeached as soon as his political opponents take control of Congress”
- SupportedLynn says tariffs may gradually fade as courts overturn their legal basis and the president lacks authority to reimpose them.WA Today - Latest News: “The tariffs may well gradually fade away as the legal basis for them is overturned by the courts and the president lacks the authority to reimpose them.”
- SupportedLynn says paralysis could lift the threat of trade wars.WA Today - Latest News: “The perpetual threat of trade wars will be lifted, allowing companies to get back to long-term planning again.”