Trump says Iran war will not end until after November midterm elections, predicts oil price drop

US President Donald Trump has said he does not expect the war with Iran to end until after the November midterm elections, adding that oil prices will not fall until then. Speaking en route to the Republican Party's first midterm convention in Texas on Wednesday, Trump told reporters he believes the war will end "immediately after" the vote because Iran's leaders "can't hold out any longer".

"Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," Trump said, while acknowledging it may take "a little bit longer than the midterm".

The war, which began when the US and Israel attacked Iran in February, is now in its seventh month. It has spread rapidly across the Middle East, with Iran retaliating with missiles and drones at Israel and Arab states hosting US military facilities.

Oil prices hit $100 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time since July, driven by intensified fighting that has attacked oil facilities, forced production stoppages in Gulf states and disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz. US diesel recently hit an all-time high.

Trump is facing falling approval ratings and growing pressure from within his party to end the conflict. At the Texas convention, he sought to energise Republicans ahead of the 3 November elections, in which the party risks losing control of Congress. He acknowledged some Americans' dissatisfaction, saying: "Guys come up to me and say, 'I wish you didn't do the war in Iran. Now gasoline is up'."

Trump also claimed Iran was "desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there" — an apparent reference to Democrats — "and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon". He provided no evidence for the claim. Tehran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. Trump said further negotiations with Iran could possibly happen "but it's not something we're looking at".

Why This Matters

The US president's explicit admission that the war will continue past November midterms signals a prolonged conflict with no near-term resolution, directly affecting global oil prices and consumer costs.
The statement comes as the Republican Party faces a difficult electoral landscape; historically, the sitting president's party loses seats in midterms. Trump's comments may energise or alienate voters.
Brent crude has breached $100 a barrel multiple times in recent months, with knock-on effects on fuel and grocery prices globally. A protracted war threatens further economic disruption.

Background

The US-Iran war began in February 2026 after the US and Israel attacked Iran. Iran retaliated with strikes on Israel and Gulf states hosting US military facilities. The conflict escalated with a US naval blockade on Iranian ports and attacks on Iranian tankers. Trump initially predicted the war would last only weeks. It is now in its seventh month, causing a steep decline in his approval ratings and pressure from within his party, including staunch supporters, to end it. Midterm elections on 3 November will determine control of Congress.

Key Perspectives

Donald Trump (US President): Argues that short-term economic pain is necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Believes Iran will capitulate after the election. Accuses Iran of interfering in US elections, a claim he does not substantiate. Iranian Government: Has denied seeking nuclear weapons and insists its nuclear programme is peaceful. No official response to Trump's latest comments is yet reported. Critics and Republican Skeptics: Some Americans and even Trump supporters express dissatisfaction with the war's economic impact. The conflict has contributed to falling poll numbers and intra-party pressure to end the war quickly.

What to Watch

Oil price movements: Brent crude's trajectory over the coming weeks will test Trump's prediction of a post-election drop.
Midterm election dynamics: Whether the war becomes a decisive issue for voters and whether Republicans maintain control of Congress.
Escalation or de-escalation: Any significant shift in military operations (e.g., negotiations, ceasefire talks, or intensified attacks) before 3 November.

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