US intelligence warns of advanced Iranian plots to kill American officials abroad

State Department draws down embassy staff across Middle East as memo details ‘substantially increased’ threat

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published24 October 2026

Read Time2 min

Sources2 outlets

U.S. intelligence has warned that Iran has “substantially increased” efforts to target American diplomats and officials, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages,” according to an Oct. 23 memo obtained by Axios. The warning has prompted the State Department to reduce personnel at several embassies in the Middle East amid fears of a broader regional conflict.

Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent a one-page, unclassified memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Oct. 23 warning that intelligence about Iranian assassination plots needs to reach more U.S. personnel than are currently authorized to receive it. The memo does not identify specific targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots, but says the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials. Clayton offered to downgrade as much of the sensitive intelligence as possible so Rubio could share it more widely with personnel potentially at risk.

Earlier this week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran. On Friday, the department also ordered reductions in U.S. diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, a U.S. official said. “We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff,” the official said.

U.S. officials say the intelligence is one reason for the drawdown, amid mounting fears of a broader regional conflict. Officials also fear that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region. Adding to the volatile security environment is the prospect of renewed U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections.

“We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal],” President Trump said at a rally in Florida on Friday. “If they're smart, they will just say, 'Let's get down to business,' but I doubt they will do that because perhaps they're not smart.”

Analysis

Why This Matters

The intelligence warning signals a serious escalation in Iranian efforts to target U.S. officials abroad, directly threatening American diplomatic personnel in multiple countries.
The drawdown of embassy staff reduces the U.S. diplomatic presence in a volatile region at a time when tensions with Iran and its proxies are high.
The threat extends beyond the Middle East, with the memo warning of plots in countries outside the region, potentially affecting a wider range of U.S. personnel.

Background

U.S.-Iran tensions have remained high since the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal and conducted strikes against Iranian targets. Past intelligence has revealed Iranian plots to assassinate former officials, including on U.S. soil. The Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, have launched attacks on Saudi Arabia and could broaden their operations. The possibility of renewed U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran adds further instability.

Key Perspectives

U.S. officials: The threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots is serious enough to require reducing the diplomatic footprint and keeping only essential staff at embassies across the Middle East. President Trump: He raised the possibility of another military operation like “Operation Epic Fury” but also left the door open for a deal with Iran, saying he doubted Tehran would negotiate.

What to Watch

Whether the State Department reduces personnel at additional embassies or authorizes further security measures.
Any movement toward renewed U.S. or Israeli military operations against Iran, particularly after the midterm elections.
Signs of Houthi attacks expanding beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region.

Sources

Scoop: U.S. intel memo warns of "advanced" Iranian plots to kill officials abroad · Axios
US is reducing staffing at 4 Middle East embassies over increased threats from Iran · Philadelphia Inquirer

Checked

11 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 10 supported.

Show each claim

SupportedThe headline says US intelligence warned of advanced Iranian plots to kill American officials abroad.Axios: “U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," according to an Oct. 23 memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio obtained by Axios.”
SupportedThe summary says the State Department is drawing down embassy staff across the Middle East and the memo describes a ‘substantially increased’ threat.Axios: “U.S. officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East”
SupportedUS intelligence says Iran has “substantially increased” efforts to target American diplomats and officials.Axios: “U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond”
SupportedLethal plots have reached “advanced stages.”Axios: “with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages,"”
Partly supportedThe warning prompted the State Department to reduce personnel at several Middle East embassies.Axios: “U.S. officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East”
SupportedDNI Jay Clayton warned Rubio in a one-page, unclassified memo about intelligence on Iranian assassination plots.Axios: “In the one-page, unclassified memo obtained by Axios, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Rubio that intelligence about Iranian assassination plots needs to reach more U.S. personnel than are currently authorized to receive it.”
SupportedThe memo says it does not identify specific targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots.Axios: “The memo does not identify specific targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots, but says the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials.”
SupportedEarlier that week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran.Axios: “Earlier this week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran.”
SupportedOn Friday, the department ordered reductions in U.S. diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the UAE, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan.Axios: “On Friday, the department also ordered reductions in U.S. diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, a U.S. official said.”
SupportedA U.S. official said, “We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff.”Axios: “"We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff," the official said.”
SupportedTrump said at a rally in Florida on Friday, “We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal].”Axios: “"We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal]," President Trump said at a rally in Florida on Friday.”