Senate races have attracted about $US3.4 billion in spending, according to AdImpact. Texas is tipped to become the most expensive Senate race in US history, and the midterms will determine whether Democrats can neuter the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
Combined, these groups are expected to spend a record $US11.6 billion ($A16.5 billion) to influence the elections. “Competitive races drive up the price tag of elections,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, in comments reported by Newsweek. The Senate has attracted the largest share of spending, with its most expensive contests drawing hundreds of millions in advertising and political donations.
In Texas, where the race between Republican Attorney-General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is tipped to become the priciest Senate campaign in history, ad spending is expected to add up to $US573 million, per AdImpact. Talarico, who has raised $US134 million mostly from small donations, described the contest as “David vs Goliath”. He is being outspent by Republicans, with Elon Musk and PACs donating hundreds of millions to Paxton.
Ohio’s Senate battle has cost more than $US500 million, with Republican incumbent Jon Husted facing former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown. President Donald Trump campaigned for Husted, at one point complimenting his physique. Democrats have tried to portray Husted as the face of increasingly unpopular data centres, while clinging to polls showing many Ohio voters believe Brown is the incumbent.
In Michigan, the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers has been a bitter contest involving a conflict between El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, whom he defeated in an August primary. After a controversial PAC ad portrayed Rogers as beholden to Israeli interests, Stevens vowed to vote for Rogers instead of El-Sayed. El-Sayed’s team distanced itself from the ad. El-Sayed told 60 Minutes his opponents had spent a “third of a billion dollars just to beat me in a campaign … I don’t take money from corporations, I want to stand up to them.” Despite being outspent, El-Sayed led Rogers 53 per cent to 42 per cent in recent polling.
Other expensive contests include Iowa and Maine, each at more than $US200 million. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek has raised $US24 million and Republican Ashley Hinson $US14 million, while in Maine, long-time Senator Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Republicans have about $US700 million more cash than Democrats, allowing them to outspend rivals by $US200 million in the most competitive races, according to Bloomberg.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- The record spending underscores the growing influence of private wealth, including from individuals like Elon Musk, in US elections.
- The outcome of these Senate races will determine whether Democrats can gain the four seats needed for a majority, enabling them to challenge Trump's agenda.
- The most expensive races are in states that have become more competitive, reflecting deep political polarisation and high stakes for both parties.
Background
US midterm elections decide control of Congress. The Senate is the focus this year, with Democrats needing to gain four seats for a majority. The record spending reflects the competitiveness of several races and the massive outside investment from party committees, super PACs and wealthy donors.
Key Perspectives
- James Talarico (Democratic candidate, Texas): describes his race as “David vs Goliath” against the spending advantage of Republican Ken Paxton.
- Abdul El-Sayed (Democratic candidate, Michigan): says his opponents spent a “third of a billion dollars just to beat me” and stresses his campaign does not take corporate money.
- Haley Stevens (Democrat, Michigan): vowed to vote for Republican Mike Rogers after a controversial PAC ad, highlighting a split within the Democratic Party.
What to Watch
- Election Day results to see if Democratic polling leads in Michigan and Ohio hold.
- The impact of the Democratic rift in Michigan on turnout and the final result.
- Whether the record Republican spending in Texas and other states translates into wins or is offset by Democratic grassroots fundraising.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedSenate races have attracted about US$3.4 billion in spending.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “The Senate, where Democrats need to win four more seats for a majority, has attracted the biggest share of spending, about $US3.4 billion, according to AdImpact, which tracks ad spending.”
- SupportedTexas is tipped to become the most expensive Senate race in US history.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Traditionally red Texas is tipped to become the most expensive Senate race in the country’s history”
- SupportedOhio's Senate battle has cost more than US$500 million.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “This year’s Senate battle between Republican incumbent Jon Husted and former Democratic senator Sherrod Brown has also cost more than $US500 million, AdImpact said.”
- SupportedThe midterms will determine whether Democrats can neuter the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Combined, these groups are expected to have spent a record $US11.6 billion ($16.5 billion) to influence these elections, which will determine whether the Democrats can neuter the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.”
- SupportedRottinghaus said, “Competitive races drive up the price tag of elections,” to Newsweek.Brisbane Times - Latest News: ““Competitive races drive up the price tag of elections,” Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor in the University of Houston’s department of political science, told Newsweek .”
- SupportedThe groups are expected to spend a record US$11.6 billion (A$16.5 billion) to influence the elections.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Combined, these groups are expected to have spent a record $US11.6 billion ($16.5 billion) to influence these elections”
- SupportedAd spending on the Texas contest is expected to total US$573 million.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “AdImpact said ads about the Texas stoush will add up to $US573 million”
- SupportedTalarico described his political fight as “David vs Goliath”.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Outspent by the Republicans and at war with the world’s wealthiest person, Talarico has described his political fight as “David vs Goliath”.”
- SupportedTalarico told 60 Minutes that his opponents had spent a “third of a billion dollars just to beat me in a campaign … I don’t take money from corporations, I want to stand up to them.”Brisbane Times - Latest News: “El-Sayed told 60 Minutes his opponents had spent a “third of a billion dollars just to beat me in a campaign … I don’t take money from corporations, I want to stand up to them.””
- SupportedRepublicans have outspent Democrats in the Michigan contest.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Republicans have outspent Democrats in this bitter contest, yet were behind 42 per cent to 53 per cent in recent polling.”
- SupportedRecent polling put El-Sayed ahead of Rogers, 53 per cent to 42 per cent.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “Republicans have outspent Democrats in this bitter contest, yet were behind 42 per cent to 53 per cent in recent polling.”
- Partly supportedRepublicans have about US$700 million more cash than Democrats, allowing them to outspend rivals by US$200 million in the most competitive races.Brisbane Times - Latest News: “the party has about $US700 million more cash than the Democrats, allowing it to outspend its rivals by $US200 million in the most competitive Senate races, according to Bloomberg.”