The assessment comes amid reports that CIA chief John Radcliffe's visit to Moscow this week was partly intended to warn Russia against a possible attack on a NATO member. However, the Western officials described recent Russian warnings—including that UK forces could be targeted or that its weapons factories could be hit—as "nothing new" and consistent with Russia's military doctrine of applying pressure on the West.
The officials suggested the escalating rhetoric also reflects growing pressure on Putin at home, with slow and costly gains in Ukraine compounded by Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory. Putin and his officials have repeatedly dismissed warnings of Russian plans to attack NATO countries as hysteria. US President Donald Trump has echoed that view, stating this week that Putin "is not going to attack a NATO territory."
Western officials noted that before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Putin publicly denied any intention to attack Ukraine despite overwhelming US intelligence to the contrary. They expect Russia to continue its "hybrid activity"—cyber-attacks, sabotage, and assassination attempts—short of direct military action, aimed at breaking Western resolve. One official highlighted the risk that this strategy could lead to a miscalculation sparking a military confrontation. Russia is suspected of being behind a string of recent drone incidents in several NATO countries.