Joint deterministic-generative model extends reliable extreme-precipitation nowcasting to six hours
The authors present MW-Nowcast, a six-hour ensemble radar nowcasting model that jointly learns a deterministic predictor for organized precipitation structure and a generative flow-matching model for local residuals. The model doubles the available warning time for the most intense rainfall, delivering 6 h forecasts with skill previously confined to 3 h for the leading generative baseline.