Polls opened across the United States on Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump's second term, with cost-of-living concerns and the war with Iran among issues on voters' minds.
All 435 House seats are on the ballot, along with 35 Senate seats, 39 governorships in 36 states and three territories, and thousands of state legislative seats, judicial contests and ballot measures on taxes, abortion rights and voting rules. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats to the 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them. The Guardian's guide puts the party's House target at a net gain of four seats; an ABC explainer put it at three.
Midterms fall nearly halfway through a president's term and have a long history of punishing the occupant of the White House: the president's party has lost House seats in 18 of the past 20 midterms, a rate stretching back to 1946, The Guardian reports.
The Supreme Court rejected Trump's emergency request to force California to set aside potentially thousands of ballots. The federal government argued some may have been cast by non-citizens and flagged about 20,000 people on the state's voter rolls. The court did not detail its reasoning, as is common in emergency decisions. California Governor Gavin Newsom wrote on X: "The Court rejected Trump's emergency request without even asking the other side to respond," adding: "Democracy won."
On the eve of voting, the US reportedly struck Qeshm Island in southern Iran. The strikes, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, were defensive in nature, according to officials, and targeted surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets, Reuters and the Associated Press reported. Trump had told journalists the day before: "We had a war with Iran. We won," and "I don't know if you even call it a war because we haven't been doing any fighting for months." The Journal reported that the US has been launching smaller strikes for several weeks without publicly announcing them, and Iran has continued to enforce its closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices dominated the final stretch. The BBC reports diesel reached a record $6.52 a gallon in September, against $3.75 before the war began in February, and inflation has risen to 3.7% from 3% when Trump took office. The Financial Times reported that US petrol prices were set to hit a record high for any administration the day before the midterms, ABC said. In Detroit, some stations were near $5 a gallon.
Forecasts aggregated by Fifty Plus One gave Democrats a 99% chance of winning the House and an 80% chance of taking the Senate, ABC reported. Final polls put Trump's approval rating around 38%, while an NBC poll released on Sunday found only 29% of voters viewed the Democratic Party positively, the BBC reported. Republican National Committee press secretary Natalie Baldassarre said: "National polls always under count support for Republicans, and with President Trump barnstorming the country and driving our voters to the polls, Republicans are ready to fight, defy history, and protect our majorities." Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini told ABC the environment was "genuinely bad" for his party, and that Republicans looked "weaker this late in a cycle than I can remember".
Democrats now look competitive in Senate races in red states including Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio. "When they start spending hard American dollars on political advertising in a state that they should be winning, that's how you know that they think they're in trouble," Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, told the BBC, referring to Kansas, where ad spending rose tenfold.
In Michigan, Democrat Haley Stevens's last-minute endorsement of Republican Mike Rogers left its effect on the Senate race unclear. Stevens narrowly lost the party's primary to Abdul El-Sayed in August. Outside an El-Sayed rally in Detroit, voter Ali Tariq said he was not surprised: "I've always kind of seen her as like a closet Republican." Roseanne Simons, wearing a "Jews for Abdul" badge, said: "I support Abdul's stance on aid to Israel. I am a proud Jew. I do not support the Netanyahu government and what Israel is doing and what this country is complicit in helping Israel do."
Trump has campaigned as though his name were on the ballot. "In this election, I'm asking you to pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot," he said last month, according to the BBC. "Just pretend."
The front page in your inbox each weekday morning: the lead, the picks, and why each one earned its place.
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Analysis
Why This Matters
Control of Congress is the prize. A Democratic win in either chamber would let the party block Trump's legislative agenda and, in the House, open investigations and hearings; ABC notes the president could face another impeachment effort.
The result will be read as a judgement on the war with Iran and on prices, the issue voters name as their top concern, after fuel costs hit records following the February conflict.
Senate contests in Texas, Michigan and Georgia will show whether Democrats can win in red and purple states, and which of their rising stars carry the party toward 2028.
Background
Congress has two chambers. All 435 House seats are contested every two years, while senators serve staggered six-year terms, so roughly a third of the 100-seat Senate is up each cycle. Whichever party holds a chamber controls its agenda and committee investigations, and the Senate confirms judges and executive appointments.
This cycle has been fought on new maps. Congressional districts were redrawn in 10 states after Texas redrew its map to favour Republicans, and the Cook Political Report estimates Republicans gained a net five seats from the redistricting fights, according to ABC. Advocates say federal and Supreme Court rulings in recent years have weakened the Voting Rights Act, and disputes over voter eligibility and mail-in ballots became a major flashpoint.
Key Perspectives
Natalie Baldassarre, Republican National Committee press secretary: says national polls always undercount Republican support and that the party is ready to "defy history" and protect its majorities.
Patrick Ruffini, Republican pollster: says the environment is "genuinely bad" for Republicans and they look weaker this late in a cycle than he can remember.
Carrie Dann, Cook Political Report: says heavy Republican advertising in states the party should be winning shows a party that believes it is in trouble.
Ali Tariq, Michigan voter: says he was not surprised by Haley Stevens's endorsement of Mike Rogers and has "always kind of seen her as like a closet Republican".
Roseanne Simons, Michigan voter: says she supports El-Sayed's stance on aid to Israel despite disagreement within her community.
Ericka Hampton, Detroit voter: calls fuel prices "astronomical".
What to Watch
Early House results in Indiana's 5th District, Kentucky's 6th and Florida's 22nd and 27th, which NPR says will signal Republican turnout and how Latino voters are breaking.
Whether Republicans reach 46% among independents, a threshold NPR says they have needed to win in the Trump era.
Democratic margins in Michigan's Wayne County, where NPR reports Democrats have needed 68% or more to win the state, and in Texas, where the gap between Greg Abbott's and Ken Paxton's vote totals and the Latino share in South Texas will decide whether James Talarico can win.
SupportedThe midterms will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s second term.World news | The Guardian: “The elections for Congress will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s second term.”
SupportedMore than 50 million Americans had already voted before Election Day.Just In: “More than 50 million Americans have already voted, but many more ballots will be cast today.”
SupportedDemocrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control.World news | The Guardian: “Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a majority.”
SupportedCost-of-living concerns and the Iran war were among the issues on voters’ minds.BBC News: “Voters overwhelmingly say they are most concerned about the cost of living. Food and fuel prices have soared in part due to the president's aggressive tariffs and unpopular war with Iran”
SupportedThe ballot includes all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 39 governorships across 36 states and three territories, plus state legislative seats, judicial contests and ballot measures.World news | The Guardian: “All 435 seats in the House of Representatives. ... 35 seats in the Senate. ... 39 governorships. Voters will choose governors in 36 states and three US territories. Thousands of state legislative seats, as well as local offices, judicial contests and ballot measures”
SupportedThe Supreme Court rejected Trump’s request to make California set aside potentially thousands of ballots; the federal government said some may have been cast by non-citizens and flagged about 20,000 people on the voter rolls.Just In: “the US Supreme Court rejected President Donald Trump's attempt to force California to sideline potentially thousands of ballots. The federal government claims that these ballots may have been cast by non-citizens, flagging around 20,000 people on the largely Democratic state's voter rolls.”
SupportedGavin Newsom said, “The Court rejected Trump's emergency request without even asking the other side to respond,” and added, “Democracy won.”Just In: ““The Court rejected Trump's emergency request without even asking the other side to respond,” California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, posted on X. “Democracy won.””
SupportedThe US reportedly struck Qeshm Island on the eve of voting, with the strikes described as defensive and aimed at surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets.World news | The Guardian: “The US reportedly attacked Qeshm Island in southern Iran on Monday. Monday’s strikes, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, were defensive in nature, according to officials, and targeted surface-to-air missiles being used against US assets”
SupportedTrump said, “We had a war with Iran. We won,” and, “I don’t know if you even call it a war because we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.”World news | The Guardian: ““We had a war with Iran. We won,” Trump told journalists yesterday. “I don’t know if you even call it a war because we haven’t been doing any fighting for months.””
SupportedDiesel reached a record $6.52 a gallon in September, compared with $3.75 before the war began in February.BBC News: “The price of a gallon of diesel - which was $3.75 before the war started in February - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.”
Not in the sourcesUS petrol prices were set to hit a record high for any administration the day before the midterms, according to the Financial Times and ABC.BBC News: “The price of a gallon of diesel - which was $3.75 before the war started in February - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.”
Correction
An earlier version of this story included a quote attributed to Ericka Hampton and identified her as a tattoo artist. The sources do not support that quotation or identification.