Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of imprisoned former president Jair Bolsonaro, is the front-runner heading into Brazil's presidential runoff this Sunday, after edging out incumbent leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round. Bolsonaro has pledged to amnesty his father and the rioters who stormed the capital, impeach Supreme Court justices, and cut public spending.
The 45 year old senator and his family may be on the cusp of gaining sweeping powers to rewrite Brazil's history, reshape its future and target their perceived enemies. A victory would mark the Bolsonaro family's stunning return to power less than four years after Jair Bolsonaro was convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison.
Bolsonaro's success has been rooted in sweeping promises to tackle crime, high grocery bills and a stagnating economy. He has vowed to "declare war" on drug traffickers by building more prisons, labelling gangs as terrorist groups and lowering the age of criminal responsibility. "I will reclaim every metre, I will reclaim every street, every neighbourhood, every city, every territory that these scoundrels have taken from the Brazilian people," Bolsonaro said during a debate days before the runoff.
Inspired by Argentine President Javier Milei's chainsaw symbol, Bolsonaro has adopted a pair of giant scissors, vowing to cut about $US40 billion in public spending and privatise public companies. He has also pledged to lower taxes and decrease red tape for entrepreneurs.
Bolsonaro has aligned himself with President Donald Trump on using lethal force to fight drug gangs and has offered Brazil's vast critical mineral deposits as a way to reduce America's reliance on China. Trump has not formally backed Bolsonaro, but his administration has labelled Brazilian gangs as terror groups.
Lula, who led Brazil through a commodities boom and lifted millions out of poverty, has struggled to clean up his image among voters who link him to corruption. His convictions were tossed out in 2021 on evidence the judge was biased. In his third term, Brazil's economy has posted modest growth and unemployment has fallen to record lows, but rising household debt and eroding affordability have dampened his approval.
Rosana Pinheiro-Machado, a professor at University College Dublin who studies Brazil's populist movements, said: "Bolsonarismo is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of a large portion of the population."
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Brazil's election outcome could shift the balance of power in South America, with Bolsonaro aligning closely with Washington.
- A victory would test democratic institutions, given his promises to amnesty his father and punish the judges who convicted him.
- Bolsonaro's pledge to cut spending and privatise could reshape the region's largest economy, though experts question the arithmetic.
Background
Jair Bolsonaro was president of Brazil from 2019 to 2022 and was sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after losing the last election to Lula. His son, Flavio Bolsonaro, is a senator who shocked many by nearly winning outright in the first round of voting this month, drawing more ballots than Lula though the margin was the narrowest ever. The runoff is set for Sunday.
Key Perspectives
Flavio Bolsonaro: Positions himself as a law and order candidate, promising to "declare war" on drug traffickers, cut $US40 billion in public spending and amnesty his father and the January 8 rioters. He has adopted giant scissors as a symbol of austerity, echoing Argentina's Javier Milei.
Rosana Pinheiro-Machado, professor at University College Dublin: Says "Bolsonarismo is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of a large portion of the population," attributing the movement's appeal to voter discontent over crime, inflation and economic stagnation.
Lula's campaign: Highlights the incumbent's record of lifting millions out of poverty and standing up to Trump, who tried to force Brazil into dropping the coup charges against Jair Bolsonaro. But Lula faces headwinds from rising household debt, a Supreme Court crisis and persistent corruption allegations that have dampened his approval.
What to Watch
- The outcome of Sunday's runoff vote, which could be extremely close after a razor thin first round.
- Whether Bolsonaro follows through on threats to impeach Supreme Court justices and rewrite the constitution if elected.
- How the US administration responds to a Bolsonaro victory, given Trump's implicit support but no formal endorsement.
