Honduras turns to cloud seeding as El Niño deepens drought crisis

Flights spraying silver iodide draw praise and scepticism in a country where half the population is under water alert

By LineZotpaper AI staff

Published25 October 2026

Read Time3 min

Drought-stricken Honduras has contracted Mexican firm Startup Renaissance to seed clouds with silver iodide from a small plane, an emergency $700,000 program launched as an intensifying El Niño threatens one of the most intense episodes on record. About 5.6 million Hondurans, practically half the population, live under some type of water alert, and the capital rationed supplies to every nine days, or every 14 when El País visited.

A small plane once used to carry celebrities is now the hope of a country ranked among those most exposed to El Niño. Aboard the King Air C90, Mexican pilot Víctor Torres and technician Juan Carlos Diaz open valves on a tank holding 1,000 litres of silver iodide, guided by a meteorologist on the ground to developing clouds near Comayagua. The plane spends two minutes crossing back and forth. Thirteen minutes later, thousands of droplets streak the windows.

The technique, practiced for about 70 years, mimics natural rain formation: silver iodide particles act as condensation nuclei that, depending on humidity, temperature, motion and water vapour, can reach the point of precipitation immediately or a few minutes later. The crew say a developing cloud is the essential ingredient. "On a summer day with bright sun, no science will work," Torres concludes.

The pilots predict the flights increase rainfall by 40 to 60 per cent, informally describing the tool as one that "squeezes" the water a cloud holds "and a little more." International bodies are more cautious. Spain's State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) estimates the impact at 5 to 10 per cent more rain, and the US Government Accountability Office between 0 and 20 per cent. The World Meteorological Organization offers no percentage, stressing that this remains an active area of scientific research. Rodney Martínez, the WMO's representative for North America, Central America and the Caribbean, says each project must be designed, executed and evaluated rigorously, with independent reviews. No environmental or human health damage from silver iodide is known, he says, but possible unintended effects such as uncontrolled flooding cannot yet be ruled out.

Secretary of state for the Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG), Moisés Abraham Molina Guillén, calls the results "very laudable," telling El País that "where 20 millimeters were forecast, we recorded 80 and 100." He insists the seeding is one of multiple measures, including drilling wells "at full speed" and distributing seeds only to farmers "where the rainfall forecast is adequate." Sugar producers, who contributed one-sixth of the investment, see relief for their battered crops, while citizens sceptical of the government raise an eyebrow when recent rains are linked to the state effort.

The stakes are high. In the Dry Corridor, thousands of farming families have harvested nothing for 11 months. Since August, Tegucigalpa has rationed water, with each citizen receiving it, if lucky, every nine days for three or four hours. Suyapa Alvarenga, 71, of the working-class Nueva Suyapa neighbourhood, says she has never known what it is to turn on a tap. "I don't want luxuries. Just water and food. With that you're richer than rich," she declares.

Torres is frank about the limits. "It's a bandage for a fracture, we know," he says from his copilot's seat. Scientists agree cloud seeding can produce nearly immediate precipitation under very specific conditions, but will never be enough to reverse a drought like Honduras's, especially as the WMO warns El Niño will continue to intensify, with a better than 75 per cent probability of a record episode between October and December.

Analysis

Why This Matters

About 5.6 million people, practically half of Honduras's population, are under some type of water alert, including 103 municipalities in the red category, and Tegucigalpa rations water to every nine days.
The WMO warns El Niño will intensify over coming months, could peak in December and become one of the most intense episodes on record.
Cloud seeding is being deployed as an emergency stopgap, and scientists agree it cannot reverse a drought like the one Honduras faces.

Background

Cloud seeding has been practiced for about 70 years. The technique releases particles such as silver iodide that act as condensation nuclei, mimicking the natural process by which rain forms but seeking to amplify its intensity. Its effectiveness is disputed: those flying the missions predict 40 to 60 per cent more rain, while Spain's Aemet estimates 5 to 10 per cent and the US Government Accountability Office between 0 and 20 per cent. The WMO offers no figure and calls it an active area of research.

Key Perspectives

Víctor Torres and the Startup Renaissance crew: predict 40 to 60 per cent more rainfall from their flights and describe the work as "a bandage for a fracture."
Moisés Abraham Molina Guillén, Honduras's secretary of state for SAG: calls the results "very laudable" and says 80 and 100 millimetres were recorded where 20 were forecast.
Rodney Martínez, WMO representative: each project must be designed, executed and evaluated rigorously, with independent reviews; no harm from silver iodide is known, but unintended effects cannot be ruled out.
Sugar producers in Honduras: see the stimulation as relief for their battered crops.
Sceptical citizens: raise an eyebrow when recent rains are linked to the government effort.

What to Watch

Whether El Niño peaks in December as forecast and becomes one of the most intense episodes on record, with a better than 75 per cent probability of a record magnitude between October and December.
Whether Honduras increases spending on the $700,000 program, a figure it says it is considering raising.
The water rationing interval in Tegucigalpa, which had stretched from every nine days to every 14 when El País visited.

Sources

Squeezing the clouds: Aboard the small plane making it rain in drought-stricken Honduras · El País English

Checked

12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 8 supported.

Show each claim

Partly supportedEl Niño is deepening Honduras’s drought crisis.El País English: “Much less in the times of the El Niño phenomenon, which has disrupted climate patterns in the country.”
SupportedFlights draw both praise and scepticism.El País English: “This initiative, which aims to benefit the 2.3 million hectares affected in the country, has been as applauded as it has been criticized.”
SupportedAbout 5.6 million people, practically half the population, are under some type of water alert.El País English: “Honduras has 5.6 million people, practically half its population, under some type of alert”
Partly supportedThe $700,000 cloud-seeding program was an emergency program.El País English: “In total, it has cost $700,000, a figure they are considering increasing.”
SupportedThe El Niño episode could become one of the most intense on record.El País English: “the El Niño phenomenon will continue to intensify over the coming months and could peak in December, becoming one of the most intense episodes on record.”
SupportedTegucigalpa’s water rationing was every nine days, or every 14 days when El País visited.El País English: “Each citizen receives water — if they’re lucky — every nine days and only for about three or four hours. When EL PAÍS visited Honduras, it was every 14 days.”
Not in the sourcesJuan Carlos Diaz was a technician aboard the plane.
SupportedTorres said, “On a summer day with bright sun, no science will work.”El País English: ““They are our raw material. On a summer day with bright sun, no science will work,” Torres concludes.”
SupportedThe pilots predict their interventions increase rainfall by 40 to 60 per cent.El País English: “While both predict a 40% to 60% increase in rainfall as a result of their interventions”
SupportedMolina said, “where 20 millimeters were forecast, we recorded 80 and 100.”El País English: “The official called the seeding results “very laudable” and told EL PAÍS that “where 20 millimeters were forecast, we recorded 80 and 100.””
Partly supportedAlvarenga has never known what it is to turn on a tap.El País English: “Doña Suyapa does not know what it is to turn on a tap and have water.”
SupportedThe WMO put the probability of a record El Niño episode between October and December at better than 75 per cent.El País English: “There is more than a 75% probability that, between October and December, it will reach a magnitude greater than any episode observed since 1950.”

Correction

25 October 2026An earlier version of this story said droplets streaked the plane's windows after two minutes of crossing back and forth. The source reports that they appeared thirteen minutes later.