Study suggests 300,000 could be in path of potential Himalayan disasters as Nepal plans riverbank ban

Nine researchers from the UK, Nepal and India examined areas up to 50 km downstream of Himalayan rivers and around 1,360 glacial lakes. They found significant expansion of tourism facilities, infrastructure and real estate in those areas. In Pokhara, a tourism hub at the foot of the Himalayas, Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya said many old buildings are just 5 m from riverbanks despite new rules requiring them to be further away. "Where we move them, and how we do that, is the real challenge," he said.

In the Annapurna trekking region, Phurpa Chhiring Lama, who runs a homestay, said normally all his 20 rooms are occupied at peak season but now only five are. "We have been doing this business for more than 40 years, but we've never seen this kind of disaster," he said. Krishna Gauchan, whose hotel is near the glacier-fed Modi river, said: "This river can flood if the glacier collapses or if the glacial lake bursts out and we are living in constant fear."

Laxman Subedi, president of the Hotel Association Pokhara, said tourism businesses have expanded “without any proper planning” and been promoted “haphazardly”. “By the time disasters hit, it is too late,” he said. The regions surrounding the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers have seen a significant rise in the construction of hydropower plants.

Authorities in Nepal say they are working to address the risks. Similar rules are being introduced in other river corridors, according to the national disaster agency. Chief executive Dharam Raj Uprety said: “It is a challenging job because people in many places have sentimental attachments with their land and property but we cannot ignore the increasing risks.”

In Uttarakhand, activist Anoop Nautiyal said maximum tourism limits and environmental regulations have been bypassed in the name of economic growth. On paper there are zoning rules, he said, "but on the ground we see no implementation of such rules. You can see rampant construction all over." The Uttarakhand government's 12 October cabinet decision stated the new floodplain zoning rules aim "to protect life, property and important infrastructure from possible flood damage while maintaining the natural flow of flood waters".

The risks are largely driven by warming in the Himalayan region, which scientists say is happening at twice the global rate, melting glaciers and expanding glacial lakes. Nepal has documented about 30 glacial lake outbursts since 1940. Nepal's Prime Minister Balendra Shah told the UN General Assembly his country was paying a “colossal price” for a crisis it did not create. “Every major disaster threatens to erase years of development. And it forces a poor country to borrow money to repair damage it did not cause,” he said.

Alton Byers, a mountain geographer at the University of Colorado not involved in the study, said it should serve as a “springboard” for early-warning systems and other precautionary measures. Basanta Raj Adhikari, director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Tribuvan University, said insurance grades based on risk mapping could encourage building in safer areas. Campaigners say building regulations are not implemented on the ground, while an urban planning expert says the rules have been weak and poorly enforced. The pace of construction across the region shows no sign of slowing.