Report recommends cutting police forces in England to as few as nine

Multiple sources say the establishment of nine regional forces plus a single force for Wales is under consideration, sitting above more than 150 local policing units that would handle most neighbourhood crime-fighting. The review gives a range of between nine and 18 larger forces. The larger forces would take on major crimes such as murder and serious sexual violence, public order, and back-office functions currently handled individually by each of the 43 forces.

The 43-force model, overseen by 43 police and crime commissioners, has been accused of being too slow and of delivering a postcode lottery of varying service for victims of crime. Above the regional forces, a new nationwide force called the National Police Service is wanted by the government as the home of counter-terrorism and serious organised crime. An advertisement for a commissioner for the national force is expected early in the new year.

There is division among police leaders over the scale of the reduction. Some chief constables, including current Met commissioner Mark Rowley, are concerned the government may delay the most radical change to policing in seven decades. Rowley and Greater Manchester chief constable Sir Stephen Watson are due to attend an event in Manchester on Friday titled “The cost of standing still is that criminals will win”, pressing for a reduction in the number of forces.

However, other chief constables have told the Guardian they are annoyed by the Met-organised event and are sceptical of a reduction to nine forces. One chief constable said: “Everyone knows 43 forces have to go. But the return on investment could take five or six years.” Another said: “If I was the chief constable of the super force, it would be such a huge area, I wouldn’t know anybody. I worry about it being too big.”

Matthew Scott, the Conservative police and crime commissioner for Kent, said: “They will spend a great deal of time tearing up the fabric of policing for a suboptimal outcome.” Another police leader asked: “Where is the evidence bigger forces are better?” They cited the fact that in recent years the largest forces, including the Met, Greater Manchester and West Midlands, had failed so badly they had been put into special measures and their chief constables or commissioners had been ousted.

The delay in publishing the review is understood to be linked to Andy Burnham’s devolution agenda and desire to “rewire” the British state and reform local government, including adding more mayors. Some new forces may be covered by mayors, while others may have mayors covering only part or none of their area. A police source said: “There are some concerns Andy Burnham may want to align the new police structures with mayors, which could mean 20 or more forces. That is not a radical enough change.”

Hogan-Howe publicly supported a reduction to nine forces 12 years ago. The review studied setting up national forces in Scotland and the Netherlands. The government also plans to abolish police and crime commissioners as part of the changes.