Shell nearly doubled its adjusted third-quarter profit to $10.8bn, beating analyst expectations, as the Middle East conflict drove up oil and gas prices and it expected refinery margins to reach a record.
The oil and gas major reported an adjusted profit of $10.8bn (£8.1bn) for the July-September quarter, up from $5.432bn in the same period last year and above the $10.33bn analysts had forecast. The profit also exceeded the $9.836bn Shell made in the second quarter of 2026.
The company raised its share buyback programme to $5bn for the next three months, up from $3bn in the previous quarter.
Shell’s results reflect the impact of the Middle East war on global energy markets. Shell told investors earlier this month it expected refinery profit margins to reach $42 for each barrel of fuel produced in the third quarter, far above the $24 a barrel in the second quarter and above the previous record of about $28 a barrel set in the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war, due to shortages from severe damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia.
Europe’s benchmark gas price averaged almost €64 per megawatt-hour in the third quarter, up from more than €48 in the second quarter. The global oil price benchmark averaged $94.90 a barrel, up from $69.10 a year earlier. Shell’s share price hit a record high of more than £40 a share earlier in October as the global oil price climbed towards $117 a barrel.
Shell’s own gas production was hard hit by the Middle East crisis, which led to severe damage to one of its key gas processing facilities in the Gulf. The company’s prewar gas output of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day fell by a third.
“Shell’s relentless focus on operational performance enabled very strong results in a quarter with continued severe disruption to the global energy system,” chief executive Wael Sawan said.
Climate campaigners criticised the jump in profits. “As fossil-fuelled storms, floods, and soaring costs wreck communities, oil executives like Shell’s Wael Sawan are popping champagne on the deck of a sinking planet. We are paying with our lives and paychecks while they cash in on our misery,” said Philip Evans, a senior campaigner at Greenpeace.
Shell’s shares rose 3% in early trading on Thursday.
Analysis
Why This Matters
- Shell's record profits come as households and businesses face higher energy costs driven by the Middle East war, highlighting the tension between energy security and the windfall gains for oil companies.
- The company's decision to return $5bn to investors through buybacks, rather than invest more heavily in renewable energy, is likely to intensify debate over windfall taxes and the pace of the energy transition.
- Shell's results signal that oil and gas prices may stay elevated as long as the conflict disrupts production and refining capacity, with implications for inflation and central bank policy globally.
Background
Shell is Europe's largest oil and gas company and the biggest stock on the UK's FTSE 100 index. It has faced repeated criticism from climate activists and some investors over its continued investment in fossil fuels despite global efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The current Middle East war has severely damaged energy infrastructure in the region, including a key Shell gas processing facility in the Gulf, reducing global supply and pushing up prices.
Key Perspectives
- Shell (CEO Wael Sawan): "Shell's relentless focus on operational performance enabled very strong results in a quarter with continued severe disruption to the global energy system."
- Greenpeace (senior campaigner Philip Evans): "As fossil-fuelled storms, floods, and soaring costs wreck communities, oil executives like Shell's Wael Sawan are popping champagne on the deck of a sinking planet. We are paying with our lives and paychecks while they cash in on our misery."
What to Watch
- Whether the sustained high oil prices lead to further increases in Shell's share buyback programme in the coming quarters.
- The trajectory of global oil prices, which have already approached $117 a barrel, and their impact on consumer energy costs in Europe and elsewhere.
- Potential government responses, including renewed calls for windfall taxes on oil company profits across the UK and EU.
Checked
12 claims in this story checked against 1 source: 11 supported.
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- SupportedShell nearly doubled its adjusted third-quarter profit to $10.8bn from $5.432bn a year earlier.World news | The Guardian: “Shell reported on Thursday morning that it made an adjusted profit of $10.8bn (£8.1bn) in the July-September quarter, up from $5.432bn in the third quarter of 2025.”
- Reports differAnalysts had forecast profit of $10.33bn.World news | The Guardian: “The results beat analyst expectations for a rise to $10.33bn.”
- SupportedThe Middle East conflict drove up oil and gas prices.World news | The Guardian: “Shell has doubled its profits in the last quarter after the Middle East conflict drove up the price of oil and gas and created shortages in the global market.”
- SupportedShell expected third-quarter refinery margins to reach a record.World news | The Guardian: “Shell told investors earlier this month that it expected the profit margins at its refineries to climb to $42 for each barrel of fuel produced in the July to September period, far above the margins of $24 a barrel in the second quarter of this year.”
- SupportedShell raised its share buyback programme to $5bn for the next three months, from $3bn in the previous quarter.World news | The Guardian: “The company also raised its share buyback programme – it plans to return $5bn to investors for the next three months, up from $3bn in the last quarter.”
- SupportedShell CEO Wael Sawan said: “Shell’s relentless focus on operational performance enabled very strong results in a quarter with continued severe disruption to the global energy system,”World news | The Guardian: ““Shell’s relentless focus on operational performance enabled very strong results in a quarter with continued severe disruption to the global energy system,” the Shell chief executive, Wael Sawan, said.”
- SupportedGreenpeace senior campaigner Philip Evans said: “As fossil-fuelled storms, floods, and soaring costs wreck communities, oil executives like Shell’s Wael Sawan are popping champagne on the deck of a sinking planet. We are paying with our lives and paychecks while they cash in on our misery,”World news | The Guardian: ““As fossil-fuelled storms, floods, and soaring costs wreck communities, oil executives like Shell’s Wael Sawan are popping champagne on the deck of a sinking planet. We are paying with our lives and paychecks while they cash in on our misery,” said Philip Evans, a senior campaigner at Greenpeace.”
- SupportedShell’s third-quarter profit exceeded its second-quarter profit of $9.836bn.World news | The Guardian: “Shell’s profits were also higher than in the second quarter of this year, when it made $9.836bn.”
- SupportedThe previous refinery-margin record was about $28 a barrel, set in the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war; shortages caused by severe refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia contributed to the higher margins.World news | The Guardian: “These margins are also significantly higher than the previous record for petroleum products of about $28 a barrel, set in the early months of the Russia-Ukraine war, due to shortages in the global market caused by severe damage to refineries in the Middle East and Russia.”
- SupportedThe Middle East crisis led to severe damage at one of Shell’s key gas processing facilities in the Gulf.World news | The Guardian: “Shell’s gas production has been hard hit by the Middle East crisis, which led to severe damage to one of its key gas processing facilities in the Gulf.”
- SupportedShell’s prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day fell by a third.World news | The Guardian: “The company’s prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day fell by a third as the Middle East war unfolded.”
- SupportedShell’s shares rose 3% in early trading on Thursday.World news | The Guardian: “Climate campaigners criticised the jump in profits, which pushed Shell’s shares up by 3% in early trading on Thursday morning.”
