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Geopolitics

Geopolitics: wars, alliances, sanctions, trade and the decisions between governments that shape the world.

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Geopolitics

Iran says war would not change its position as Trump hints at renewed attack

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that a potential resumption of war with the United States and Israel would not change Tehran's policies, as US President Donald Trump hinted at a possible new attack on Iran as soon as Sunday. The remarks come amid heightened tensions after an April ceasefire frayed and an interim deal fell apart, with each side accusing the other of violations.

· 5 sources
Geopolitics

Hebron displacement tops 3,000 as Israeli operation continues days before election

More than 3,000 Palestinians have been forced from their homes in Hebron as Israeli forces expand a sweeping military operation that has flattened neighbourhoods, seized homes and sealed off the city, four days before Israel's general election. The displacement figure, reported by municipal authorities and confirmed by the city's mayor, is nearly double the earlier estimate of about 2,000.

· 13 sources
Geopolitics

Smoke plumes over Russian city of Oryol after deadly factory strike, local officials say

Smoke plumes rose over the Russian city of Oryol on 23 October after what local officials said was a Ukrainian attack on a factory, with three people killed and five seriously wounded, according to the regional governor and emergency services. The location of footage published on social media was verified using satellite imagery, but the date and circumstances of the filming remain unknown.

Geopolitics

Musk says SpaceX restricted Ukraine's Starlink over drone strikes

Elon Musk has said SpaceX deliberately restricted Ukraine's Starlink internet service because the country's military violated terms of service by using the civilian network for offensive drone strikes. Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov disputed the claim, noting that Starlink terminals in Ukraine are already speed-limited and cannot operate on Russian territory. Defence Minister Yevhenii Khmara said on Saturday that the connection is now stable, with drone speeds exceeding 400 km/h, after US President Donald Trump said he told Musk to "put it back".

· 24 sources
Geopolitics

Israeli siege traps West Bank village, disrupts schools and medical care

The Israeli army has imposed a tight siege on the West Bank village of Madama since October 11, blocking all four entrances with earthen barriers and citing security reasons. The restrictions have trapped more than 2500 residents, preventing them from reaching work, schools and hospitals while disrupting this year's olive harvest a vital source income amid what locals describe as a deteriorating daily life.

Geopolitics

UAE diplomat Lana Nusseibeh enters UN chief race, challenging front-runner Rebeca Grynspan

The race to become the next United Nations Secretary-General has taken a new turn with the entry of UAE Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, who announced her candidacy this week. Nusseibeh joins a field that includes front-runner Rebeca Grynspan, the former Costa Rican Vice President, as well as several other candidates. The election could produce the first female secretary-general in the UN's more than 80-year history.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Ukraine says it has reversed Russia's territorial gains this year

Ukraine said it has recaptured more territory than Russia has seized this year, even as the US restricts military support and Russia escalates attacks on civilians and energy infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that cluster munitions hit Kyiv on October 22, and that more than 170 strikes on energy facilities have occurred since a US-brokered energy ceasefire on October 11. A trilateral meeting among the US, Russia and Ukraine is tentatively scheduled for November 10 in Abu Dhabi.

Geopolitics

Ukrainian drone strikes hit five Russian data centres, disrupting internet and AI development

Ukrainian armed forces struck five data centres belonging to Russia's largest technology companies in October, hitting three Yandex facilities, a Sber centre and a VKontakte server farm across five regions. The attacks triggered persistent failures in cloud services, payment systems and navigation apps across Russia, and experts say recovery could take months or years. The strikes also dealt a significant blow to Russia's artificial intelligence ambitions, as Yandex's supercomputers, among the world's most powerful, were damaged or destroyed.

Geopolitics

EU seeks seat at Ukraine-Russia peace talks as US prepares to resume negotiations

The European Union is pressing for a direct role in peace talks to end Russia's war on Ukraine, aiming to turn the current trilateral format involving the US, Ukraine and Russia into a multilateral process with European representation. The move comes as Washington prepares to resume technical-level talks in November after its midterm elections, following a months-long stalemate triggered by the US war on Iran.

Geopolitics

Europe faces threat of organised sabotage and terrorist attacks, warns Estonian FM

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna has warned that Europe is facing a rising wave of organised sabotage, terrorist attacks and cyberattacks orchestrated by Russia, citing a recent attack on an Estonian defence industry company that was attributed to Russian secret services. In an interview with France 24, Tsahkna said Russia was 'increasing the pressure on Europe' through hybrid tactics aimed at dividing societies and weakening unity, while its conventional military capabilities had been degraded by the war in Ukraine.

Geopolitics

Ukraine and Russia swap 270 prisoners each in first exchange in two months

Ukraine and Russia carried out a prisoner swap on October 23, the first exchange in two months, with 270 Ukrainian service members returning home and an equal number of Russian prisoners returned to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced. Most of the Ukrainians freed had been captured during the Siege of Mariupol in spring 2022, including members of the Azov regiment, Ground Forces, Navy, and Air Assault Forces. Five of those released had survived the 2022 Olenivka prison massacre, in which a thermobaric munition was detonated inside a barracks housing Ukrainian prisoners of war. In addition, several civilians were also brought back from Russia, though accounts of the exact number varied.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Qatar-led diplomacy seeks Iran nuclear deal as post-midterm strikes loom

Regional mediators led by Qatar are pressing Iran to allow UN inspectors back to its nuclear sites in an effort to head off a renewed US bombing campaign after next week's midterm elections, according to US, Israeli and regional sources cited by Axios. President Donald Trump, who told a rally in Lubbock, Texas that military action could resume, told Axios he does not know whether the negotiations will succeed.

· 4 sources
Geopolitics

Japan condemns arrest of journalist Yuki Imai on spying charges as Russia-Japan tensions escalate

Japanese journalist Yuki Imai has been arrested by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) on spying charges, prompting condemnation from Tokyo and raising fears over the deteriorating state of bilateral relations. Imai, a 34-year-old correspondent for the Hokkaido Shimbun newspaper, was detained on October 14 in the city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk on Sakhalin Island. Russian authorities transferred him to Lefortovo Prison in Moscow, where a court ordered him held in pre-trial detention until at least December 12. If convicted, he faces up to 20 years in prison.

Geopolitics

Fugitive Mexican prosecutor accused of allowing CIA agents into Chihuahua security operations

Guillermo Zuany Portillo, the former special prosecutor for strategic operations in Mexico's Chihuahua state who is accused of giving CIA agents broad access to the state attorney general's office, has been on the run since mid-May and faces charges of unlawful exercise of public office and making false statements, according to investigative documents obtained by EL PAÍS. The case has fueled a political firestorm between the federal government of President Claudia Sheinbaum and Chihuahua's opposition governor, María Eugenia Campos, after two CIA agents and two Mexican officials died in a road accident following an April anti-drug operation in which the U.S. agents participated.

Geopolitics

ICC deputy prosecutor says court making 'significant progress' despite US sanctions

The deputy prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has said new US sanctions are beginning to affect staff through banking difficulties, but insisted the court's investigations, including into the Gaza war, have made 'significant progress' and remain unaffected. Nazhat Shameem Khan said the court was working to insulate itself from the measures imposed by Washington, which has labelled the ICC a 'rogue court'.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Ukraine Says Starlink Restrictions Persist as It Signs Satellite Deal with Nokia and ICEYE

Ukrainian officials said on Friday that Starlink and Starshield speed restrictions remain in place along the front line, directly contradicting US President Donald Trump's assertion that Elon Musk had restored full service. The ongoing disruptions have pushed Kyiv to sign a letter of intent with Finnish firms Nokia and ICEYE to develop an independent satellite communications system.

· 11 sources
Geopolitics

Israel and Iran ramp up rhetoric, risking return to open conflict

Israel and Iran have escalated their war of words, raising the prospect of a return to open conflict after months of relative quiet. Israel’s prime minister, facing a tight reelection battle, argued this week for overthrowing Iran’s regime, while the US ambassador to the UN signaled Washington’s readiness for a protracted conflict. Iran, meanwhile, claimed to have struck multiple tankers and threatened US bases across the Middle East, with a senior general warning that 'action against Iran carries a cost.'

Geopolitics

Malaysian PM Anwar bans civil servants from using Waze over security fears

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has banned civil servants from using the navigation app Waze, citing risks to national security and data sovereignty. Anwar warned that the app, which was developed in Israel and remains subject to Israeli law despite being a Google subsidiary, could expose government information and personal data to misuse. He encouraged Malaysians to adopt local alternatives like Tuju, developed by the Malaysian Highway Authority.

Geopolitics

Egypt moves to bolster Saudi defenses as US and Israel plan Iran strikes, oil holds above $100

Egypt is set to authorize a defensive military deployment to Saudi Arabia, as the escalating US-Iran conflict draws in new regional actors. The move comes as Iran explicitly lists Saudi refineries, data centers and undersea cables as targets, and the New York Times reports that Washington and Israel have drawn up a short, intensive bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear and energy sites. Crude oil futures held above $100 a barrel on Friday, with Brent trading at a five-month high of $114.49.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Israeli forces displace hundreds of families in Hebron as West Bank operation intensifies

Israeli forces have demolished homes and businesses in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron, displacing hundreds of families in an operation Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said would destroy the neighbourhood where two Palestinian gunmen who killed two soldiers came from. The crackdown, launched after Friday's checkpoint attack, has seen bulldozers flatten streets, military cordons restrict movement, and spray-painted markings on buildings cleared of residents. The operation is unfolding four days before Israel's general election, in which Netanyahu faces a tight race.

· 32 sources
Geopolitics

US candidate briefly detained in West Bank as Israel arrests 36, harvest attacks spike

US Democratic congressional candidate Brad Lander was briefly detained by the Israeli military on Wednesday while volunteering to help Palestinian farmers harvest olives in the occupied West Bank, drawing international attention to a sharp escalation in attacks on the annual harvest. In a coordinated campaign reported across the territory, Israeli forces arrested 36 Palestinians during raids, while the Colonization and Wall Resistance Commission documented 17 attacks on farmers and their land in a single day.