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Geopolitics

Geopolitics: wars, alliances, sanctions, trade and the decisions between governments that shape the world.

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Geopolitics

Ukraine says Starlink restrictions persist as Trump orders Musk to lift caps, lawmakers open probe

Ukraine’s top diplomat in Washington says Kyiv has received no response from the Pentagon or SpaceX over restrictions on Starlink and Starshield satellite communications, as a growing bipartisan push for a congressional investigation escalated. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on October 23 that speed caps remain in place, and a group of six U.S. lawmakers led by Representative Gregory Meeks and Senator Peter Welch demanded that Elon Musk answer five questions about the disruptions by October 31. Senator Richard Blumenthal also announced a probe into who ordered the limits.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Canada unveils $6.2bn package to shield steel and auto industries from US tariffs

Canada announced a $6.2 billion (€5.7 billion) aid package for its steel and auto sectors on Wednesday, as Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that US tariffs have 'upended a trade bargain that's existed for decades.' The plan, unveiled jointly with Ontario Premier Doug Ford, directs $3.7 billion to steelmakers and $1.8 billion to automakers over five years. The announcement came as US-owned Cleveland-Cliffs confirmed layoffs at its Hamilton, Ontario, plant, underscoring the human cost of the dispute.

Geopolitics

Ukrainian Forces Strike Weapons Plant in Moscow Oblast, Officials Report

Ukrainian forces struck a weapons plant in Serpukhov, Moscow Oblast, overnight on Oct. 22, according to monitoring channels and independent Russian outlet Astra. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that 630 drones were headed toward Moscow Oblast, with most intercepted, but two people were injured in the Voronovskoye settlement. The Kyiv Independent notes that the reports could not be immediately verified.

Geopolitics

Trump agrees Russia diesel deal weeks after signing sanctions, report says

Four weeks after signing new sanctions on Russia's energy sector, US President Donald Trump has agreed to a deal for Russia to supply diesel to the American and global marketplace, according to a report by John Lyons for Just In. The arrangement, along with reported limits on Ukraine's military-grade Starlink service, has stunned some Republican colleagues and handed Vladimir Putin what the report calls his biggest economic and propaganda victory since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Russian fishing trawlers spying on UK undersea cables, analysis suggests, as ministers plan tougher penalties

Russian fishing trawlers are being used to spy on Britain's undersea cables, with more than 500 incidents of vessels loitering over or following cable routes recorded in the past four-and-a-half years, a new analysis has suggested. The government is expected to announce plans to crack down on those who damage the cables, proposing lengthy jail terms and unlimited fines.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Ex-FDLR officers detail anti-Tutsi ideology that sustains rebel group

Four former senior officers of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) have described the deep-rooted anti-Tutsi ideology that has sustained the armed group, speaking after defecting and returning to Rwanda. The officers, who underwent rehabilitation at the Mutobo demobilisation centre, told Al Jazeera they were taught to view Tutsis as enemies long before the 1994 genocide, with one recalling that Tutsis were referred to as 'snakes' in military training. Their accounts provide insight into how the group's ideology formed in pre-genocide Rwanda, evolved in exile in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and continues to fuel regional instability.

Geopolitics

Qatar and France Call for Free Navigation in Hormuz and Gaza Ceasefire Implementation

Qatar and France have jointly called for the restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the implementation of a ceasefire in Gaza, following a meeting in Doha between the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and French President Emmanuel Macron. The two leaders issued a joint statement emphasizing the importance of unhindered movement through the strategic waterway and urging adherence to agreed arrangements in Gaza.

Geopolitics

US Embassy accuses Canada of election interference in new fact sheet

The US Embassy in Ottawa on Wednesday released a fact sheet accusing Canadian officials of seeking to influence the November US midterm elections, pointing to public statements and actions by ministers and premiers that it says are aimed at putting political pressure on the United States. The allegations, which follow a trade war between the two countries that began in 2025, were swiftly rejected by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and other leaders.

· 4 sources
Geopolitics

US pulls some diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia as Houthi strikes mount

The US State Department has ordered some diplomats and the families of US government employees to leave Saudi Arabia, citing near-daily Houthi attacks on civilian airports and other critical infrastructure. The move comes as at least three people were killed in strikes on an airport and an oil facility, and as reports circulate that the Trump administration may be weighing new military action against Iran after the elections.

· 6 sources
Geopolitics

US orders non-essential embassy staff to leave Saudi Arabia after Dammam airport attack

The United States has ordered non-essential embassy staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, the State Department said on Wednesday, after an attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed at least one person and wounded eight. The order came as Saudi Arabia reported near-daily attacks this month from Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, including a drone interception at an oil field that killed two workers.

· 9 sources
Geopolitics

Netanyahu posts AI nuclear image as reports emerge of clash with military chief over Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear mushroom cloud over Tel Aviv and warned voters that only he could prevent annihilation, as Israeli media reported a clash between Netanyahu and the military chief of staff over a directive that could provoke conflict with Iran. Netanyahu has denied the report, but new accounts suggest he has been pushing for renewed action against Iran ahead of Tuesday's election.

· 3 sources
Geopolitics

Germany raises threat of Russian sabotage to ‘significant’ level

For the first time, Germany's military has classified the threat of Russian sabotage against its troops and facilities as 'significant', the second highest threat level, following a series of incidents including an explosives laden drone found near the Wunstorf air base in Lower Saxony. The classification, reported by Sueddeutsche Zeitung on Oct. 21, marks an escalation in Germany's response to what intelligence officials describe as a 'shadow war' with Russia.

Geopolitics

Xi, Li and Cai form 'central gang of three' at the top of Chinese politics

As the Chinese Communist Party prepares for the Fifth Plenum of its 20th Central Committee, rumours again circulate about a successor to Xi Jinping. But a new analysis argues that the real story is not who might replace Xi, but how he relies on two key lieutenants, Premier Li Qiang and senior official Cai Qi, to sustain his rule, forming what one commentator calls a 'central gang of three' that defines elite politics in the Xi era.

Geopolitics

Iran refuses to yield enriched uranium as diplomatic flurry fails to ease tensions

Iran has reaffirmed that it will not remove any enriched uranium from the country, even as a wave of diplomatic visits to Tehran this week sought to end the US–Israel war that began in February. The head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, said late Tuesday that “not a single gram of enriched uranium will be removed from Iran”, though he did not rule out downblending the material inside the country under international supervision.

Geopolitics

Russia frees US teacher as Witkoff's 'humanitarian' praise for Putin draws bipartisan backlash

Russia has released Stephen Hubbard, a retired American schoolteacher held for more than four years, as US envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg, where the Kremlin agreed to resume US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine that could begin as soon as next month. Witkoff's decision to call Putin a "humanitarian" triggered a bipartisan storm in Washington, with senators from both parties condemning the remark.

· 19 sources
Geopolitics

Russia sends first diesel tanker to US despite crippling Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries

Russia will dispatch its first tanker of diesel fuel to the United States on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced, moving ahead with a deal between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump even as Ukrainian drone strikes have slashed Russia's refining capacity by more than half. The 40,000-tonne shipment comes under a Trump-brokered agreement aimed at easing US diesel prices ahead of midterm elections, but analysts say Ukraine's sustained campaign against Russian oil infrastructure makes it unlikely Moscow can meet its export commitments.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan and Indonesia sign defence industry cooperation pact

Qatar, Turkiye, Pakistan and Indonesia signed a defence industry cooperation agreement in Doha on Wednesday, the latest in a series of moves by regional powers to diversify security partnerships amid the prolonged US-Israel conflict with Iran. The memorandum of understanding, named 'Badr', covers joint production, technology transfers and integrated supply chains, building on existing bilateral military projects.

Geopolitics

Nuclear enrichment stalemate blocks Iran ceasefire as positions harden

The renewed diplomatic push to end the US-Israel war on Iran is facing a critical impasse, as the future of Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme has re-emerged as the primary obstacle to a ceasefire. A June Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for nuclear limits expired in mid-August without a final deal, leaving a global energy crisis and an expanding regional conflict unresolved.

Geopolitics

Poland brands Lviv UPA honours 'suicidal' and moves to ban regional official

Poland has sharply escalated its response to a Ukrainian region's decision to dedicate 2027 to the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) and its commander Roman Shukhevych, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk calling the move "suicidal" and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski moving to place the Lviv official behind it on a list of undesirable persons. The dispute threatens to reverse an improvement in relations that President Volodymyr Zelensky said had arrived only days earlier.

· 2 sources
Geopolitics

Putin agrees to resume three-way Ukraine peace talks in November after Witkoff meeting

Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed in principle to resume three-way peace negotiations with the United States and Ukraine in mid-November, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, following a three-hour meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg. The diplomatic development came as Moscow released a 74-year-old American teacher imprisoned on mercenary charges, and as Russian attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv killed at least five people overnight.

· 13 sources
Geopolitics

Lockheed Martin delegation meets Kyiv defense chiefs amid Patriot missile shortage

Ukrainian Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara and Commander-in-Chief Mykhailo Drapatyi met with a Lockheed Martin delegation in Kyiv on Oct. 21 to discuss scaling up the supply of Patriot interceptor missiles, the Defense Ministry said. The talks come as Ukraine faces a severe shortage of the interceptors needed to defend against intensifying Russian ballistic missile attacks, and follow a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and the company two days earlier.

Geopolitics

Houthis say missile struck Aden military camp

A powerful explosion was heard in Aden, southern Yemen, on Wednesday, as Houthi rebels claimed a ballistic missile attack on a military camp used by the Saudi-led coalition. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree said the strike targeted the Badr camp in the city, the seat of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, and described it as precise and direct. No immediate comment was available from the Yemeni government or the coalition.

Geopolitics

US broadens Iran sanctions to rail sector as overland trade grows

The United States has opened a new front in its economic campaign against Iran by sanctioning three Iranian railway companies and seven automakers, targeting the overland trade corridors Tehran increasingly relies on following severe disruptions to its maritime routes. Announced on October 1 as part of Operation Economic Outcast, the sanctions aim to cut off revenue and logistical capacity linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Geopolitics

Witkoff carries Oslo peace proposals to Moscow as Trump questions Zelenskyy's negotiating role

US peace envoy Steve Witkoff travels to St. Petersburg on Wednesday to present Russian leaders with the proposals tabled by Ukrainian and European negotiators in Oslo, after Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed Washington had restored early-warning intelligence on Russian missile strikes and Donald Trump suggested someone other than Ukraine's president should represent Kyiv in peace talks.

· 2 sources